What to expect from exchange rates in 2021: experts made a bold forecast

Every weekday we publish Forex analytics, which for two years included an insider table of active and pending orders of large banks.
Entry, take profit and stop levels were described in sufficient detail, and the current and final results of transactions were also displayed. Unfortunately, the service has stopped broadcasting transactions (due to a conflict with the data source), but constant observations make it possible to analyze banks’ trading on Forex by analyzing transactions of currency traders of large banks - “pillars of the financial industry.” We have come up with a very interesting study and today we invite you to get acquainted with it - you will find out what strategies the world's largest banks use on the Forex currency market, how long they hold positions and how effectively they trade.

Regular readers of daily reviews will remember that the table included the positions of 15 banks, which can be divided into “eternal drainers” and companies trading in profit.

Profitable transactions are of the greatest interest, so they are subjected to comprehensive analysis. Banks with negative results were removed from the review. In the future, when an accurate hypothesis appears on the feasibility of this style of trading (hedging third-party positions, “transfer of funds”, etc.), we will definitely devote a separate article to this.

XAU USD forecast for Gold

In our XAU USD Gold forecast , we offer traders an up-to-date XAU/USD trading forecast, a unique analysis and forecast of Gold prices for today as part of an analysis of the current situation on the FOREX market using simple tools. The XAU/USD forecast section is updated every day.

Gold price forecast for today

The XAU/USD trading instrument represents the value of an ounce of Gold expressed in terms of the value of the US dollar on FOREX. The financial instrument XAU/USD is very popular and arouses interest among traders and investors around the world due to its technology; it is considered one of the most volatile instruments on Forex.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

As part of our Gold price forecast, we offer daily free technical analysis of XAU/USD on FOREX. The simplest tools of technical analysis are used here: trend lines, graphical models, as well as modern approaches in the form of patterns, due to this we obtain a high-quality technical analysis of XAU/USD.

XAU/USD forecast for today

As part of the publication of XAU/USD forecasts, we also offer traders trading recommendations and signals for Gold from the experts of our portal. If you constantly follow the updates of the XAU/USD forecast section for today, you have already noticed that movements often occur immediately after the publication of forecasts for the pair XAU/USD.

XAU/USD forecast for tomorrow

Thanks to the analysis of the four-hour chart of the price of Gold against the US dollar, we make a forecast for the XAU/USD exchange rate for tomorrow, which is also relevant at this point in time. As a rule, the XAU/USD forecast for tomorrow is published in the afternoon, taking into account the morning trading session and right before the most aggressive American one.

Forex market in 2021

The review includes an analysis of bank transactions throughout 2018. To better understand how traders of these financial companies trade, let’s look at how trends developed in the Forex market in the reporting year.

The overall picture can be traced across six major currency pairs - the charts of four of them clearly show a flat that can be traced until the end of March, a sharp trend until the middle, and for some until the end of summer. Autumn and winter, after relatively short trading in the range, is a period of continuous discrepancies in changes in the rates of major currencies.

To better understand how these periods affected the trading strategies of currency traders, the review is broken down into separate trading analyzes for each bank.

Gold Price Analysis 2021: Times of Uncertainty Propel Stellar Growth

After losing much of its shine and falling below $1,200 an ounce in 2021, gold has rebounded sharply in 2021, rising nearly 20 percent to end the year at $1,519 USD. The growth continued this year, and by February 24, the price of gold rose to $1.672 USD/OZ.

In mid-March, a sell-off in the broader market sent the gold price down to $1.477 an ounce. The metal then quickly climbed above the $1,700 mark as low interest rates and unprecedented economic stimulus boosted investor interest in safe-haven assets.

The gold market sank in early June, but has broken through to record highs this summer. On August 6, the price of the metal was $2,070 per ounce, up 35% since the start of 2021 and 40% from its March lows. The rise was driven by a weakening US dollar and a number of significant geopolitical and economic developments on the global stage, such as the EU agreement on a €750bn (£670bn, $890bn) recovery fund for coronavirus damage and the closure of the Chinese consulate to Houston, USA.

When the dollar began to rise, the price of the metal fell to $1,900–$1,950 per ounce in September. After falling to $1.865 per ounce in the last days of October amid the turmoil in the US presidential election, gold prices have seen a steady rise. The price peaked at $1,960 on November 9. However, Pfizer's soon-to-be-announced Covid-19 vaccine brought the market down initially to $1,900, and by the end of November the price of gold had fallen below $1,800 an ounce.

At the time of writing the forecast, the precious metal was trading at $1.879 dollars per ounce, which means an increase of almost 25% since the beginning of the year. But will the price of gold rise before the end of this year? And what will determine the direction of gold prices?

Indicator information window

At the top left, “FX Forecast” displays an information window (can be disabled in the settings) with the following information:

• Opening time of the current candle
• How many candles were analyzed from the entire available history in the terminal
• How many comparisons were made?
• How many similar blocks of candles were found with a match percentage of 75 or higher?
• Best match similarity percentage
• Up and down movement potential in points
• Overall assessment of the indicator's confidence in the forecast

Gold price forecast for tomorrow, week and month.

Gold price forecast for Monday, March 15th: $1724, maximum 1750, minimum 1698. Gold price forecast for Tuesday, March 16th: $1720, maximum 1746, minimum 1694. Gold price forecast for Wednesday, March 17th March 1st: $1730, maximum 1756, minimum 1704. Gold price for Thursday, March 18th: $1767, maximum 1794, minimum 1740. Gold price forecast for Friday, March 19th: $1749, maximum 1775, minimum 1723.

A week later. Gold price for Monday, March 22nd: $1728, maximum 1754, minimum 1702. Gold price forecast for Tuesday, March 23rd: $1727, maximum 1753, minimum 1701. Gold price for Wednesday 24th March: $1713, maximum 1739, minimum 1687. Gold price forecast for Thursday, March 25th: $1724, maximum 1750, minimum 1698. Gold price for Friday, March 26th: $1718, maximum 1744, minimum 1692.

Silver price forecast for 2021-2024.

In 2 weeks. Gold price forecast for Monday, March 29th: $1677, maximum 1702, minimum 1652. Gold price forecast for Tuesday, March 30th: $1650, maximum 1675, minimum 1625. Gold price forecast for Wednesday, March 31st March 1st: $1644, maximum 1669, minimum 1619. Gold price for Thursday, April 1st: $1644, maximum 1669, minimum 1619. Gold price forecast for Friday, April 2nd: $1671, maximum 1696, minimum 1646.

In 3 weeks. Gold price for Monday, April 5th: $1677, high 1702, low 1652. Gold price forecast for Tuesday, April 6th: $1678, high 1703, low 1653. Gold price for Wednesday 7th April: 1658 dollars, maximum 1683, minimum 1633. Gold price forecast for Thursday, April 8th: $1635, maximum 1660, minimum 1610. Gold price for Friday, April 9th: $1630, maximum 1654, minimum 1606.

A month later. Gold price forecast for Monday, April 12th: $1629, maximum 1653, minimum 1605. Gold price forecast for Tuesday, April 13th: $1615, maximum 1639, minimum 1591.

“FX-Forecast” – predictive Forex indicator without redrawing

The “FX-Forecast” indicator analyzes chart data for past periods and looks for certain patterns of price movement on them. Next, the tool compares the obtained values ​​with current market indicators and finds the arithmetic average between them. Based on the data received, FX-Forecast draws a continuation of the chart, trying to predict the market.

Installation and configuration of the “FX-Forecast” indicator

The indicator is custom and therefore requires manual installation in the terminal. Works under both the fifth and fourth versions of Meta Trader.

We also recommend that you read the detailed guide to working with MT4.

The indicator settings are quite extensive; more than a dozen different parameters can be changed:

• "Look Back" The indicator is responsible for the number of recent chart bars that will be analyzed for comparison with past historical data. The same number of bars will be displayed in the “FX-Forecast” block.
• "Look Forward". Number of forecasting candles (number of bars for which a forecast will be issued). For example, if you set the value here to 10, the indicator will give a forecast for the next 10 candles on the chart.
• "Look History". The number of bars from history that will be used for comparison with current indicators. If you set the parameter to “0”, the indicator will use all available historical data.
• "Correlation Data". Setting up data comparison methods. By default the variable is set to "OHLC". This means that when comparing, the algorithm uses the High-, Low-, Open- and Close- values ​​of each bar, then sums and averages them. If you add a prefix to “OHLC”, the calculation mode will change, for example, when adding the letter “M” the “Median” mode is activated, when adding “T” the “Typical” mode is activated, and when adding “W” the “Weighted” mode is activated. If you do not have sufficient trading experience, use the default settings.
• "Cor Threshold" Responsible for the percentage threshold of matches, below which the data will not be taken into account.
• "Select Best Correlations". The maximum threshold of percentage matches that will be taken into account when predicting the schedule. If you set this to 0, all matches will be counted.
• "Display Options" Configuring the indicator configuration. Here you can activate/deactivate the display of various tool blocks. The letter “T” is responsible for displaying the information table, “A” is for the average forecast, “R” is for highlighting the block of analyzed bars.
• "AVG Projection Color". Color of the average forecast line.
• "Best Projection Color". Line color of closest match.
• "Text Size". Font size.
• "Text Font". Font type.
• "Window Screenshot". Activate/deactivate the automatic screenshot function. If the value is "0", the parameter will be disabled. If you set the value to “1”, the tool will take a screenshot when each new bar appears. If the value is “3”, then a screenshot will be taken every 3 bars, if “4”, then every 4 bars, and so on. All screen recordings are stored in the “Files” folder of the “Experts” directory.

Operating principle of “FX-Forecast”

Once the installation and configuration of the indicator is completed, the chart will look something like the one shown in the figure below.

The tool analyzes a block of extreme candles on the chart (the number of candles to check can be set in the settings), then compares them with bars on history.

When comparing, the indicator reveals the percentage of similarity between block bars and historical bars. If the percentage of similarity is 75% or more (this parameter can also be changed in the settings), then the indicator begins to create a forecast. If the percentage of similarity is too small, then the tool looks for other bars for analysis.

When the percentage of similarity is high enough, FX-Forecast analyzes exactly how the price behaved after the completion of the block of historical bars. Next, the tool transfers the received data to the current chart and displays the arithmetic average of the price values. Thus, the indicator predicts price behavior based on historical chart data. The arithmetic mean forecast looks like an orange tunnel.

In addition to the arithmetic average, the indicator also finds the best match in history (the match that has the highest percentage of similarity to the current chart values). This forecast is shown on the chart as yellow candles.

In the upper left part of the screen, the tool displays a blue window with information about the analysis performed, where the following data is displayed:

• The start time of drawing the current bar.
• The number of verified candles on the chart history.
• Number of comparisons made.
• The number of blocks found for which the matching process exceeds 75 units or more.
• Best match percentage.
• Predicted potential for price movement in the direction of purchases and sales.

We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the Gann angles indicator to forecast further price movements.

How to trade using the indicator?

Like many technical indicators, the FX forecast cannot boast of 100% signal quality, so trading only based on its readings is not recommended. This tool goes well with various level indicators, as well as with classic resistance and support lines. In this case, the levels act as a filter for FX forecast readings.

When trading only one FX forecast, you should focus on charts of higher time frames. Compare FX forecast signals on the working and senior timeframes and enter the market only if the indicator readings on both charts coincide.

Gold price forecast for 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025

Gold price for March 2021 . At the beginning of the month, $1,722. The maximum price is 1738, the minimum is 1619. The average price for the month is 1681. The gold price forecast for the end of the month is 1644, change for March -4.5%.

Gold price forecast for April 2021 . At the beginning of the month, $1,644. The maximum price is 1644, the minimum is 1545. The average price for the month is 1601. The gold price forecast at the end of the month is 1569, change for April -4.6%.

Gold price for May 2021 . At the beginning of the month, $1,569. The maximum price is 1569, the minimum is 1450. The average price for the month is 1515. The gold price forecast at the end of the month is 1472, change for May -6.2%.

Gold price forecast for June 2021 . At the beginning of the month, $1,472. The maximum price is 1472, the minimum is 1428. The average price for the month is 1456. The gold price forecast at the end of the month is 1450, change for June -1.5%.

Gold price for July 2021 . At the beginning of the month, $1,450. Maximum price 1536, minimum 1450. Average price for the month 1487. Gold price forecast at the end of the month 1513, change for July 4.3%.

Euro exchange rate forecast for the month and 2021-2024.

Gold price forecast for August 2021 . At the beginning of the month, $1,513. The maximum price is 1513, the minimum is 1439. The average price for the month is 1482. The gold price forecast for the end of the month is 1461, change for August -3.4%.

Gold price for September 2021 . At the beginning of the month, $1,461. The maximum price is 1462, the minimum is 1418. The average price for the month is 1445. The gold price forecast at the end of the month is 1440, change for September -1.4%.

Gold price forecast for October 2021 . At the beginning of the month, $1,440. The maximum price is 1440, the minimum is 1372. The average price for the month is 1411. The gold price forecast for the end of the month is 1393, change for October -3.3%.

Gold price for November 2021 . At the beginning of the month, $1,393. The maximum price is 1413, the minimum is 1371. The average price for the month is 1392. The gold price forecast for the end of the month is 1392, change for November -0.1%.

Gold price forecast for December 2021 . At the beginning of the month, $1,392. The maximum price is 1500, the minimum is 1392. The average price for the month is 1441. The gold price forecast for the end of the month is 1478, the change for December is 6.2%.

Gold price for January 2022 . At the beginning of the month, $1,478. Maximum price 1537, minimum 1478. Average price for the month 1502. Gold price forecast at the end of the month 1514, change for January 2.4%.

Gold price forecast for February 2022 . At the beginning of the month, $1,514. The maximum price is 1571, the minimum is 1514. The average price for the month is 1537. The gold price forecast for the end of the month is 1548, change for February 2.2%.

Gold price for March 2022 . At the beginning of the month, $1,548. The maximum price is 1669, the minimum is 1548. The average price for the month is 1602. The gold price forecast for the end of the month is 1644, the change for March is 6.2%.

How to use “FX Forecast”?

The “FX Forecast” indicator, like any other indicator, should not be used alone. It can become part of your system, one of the filters for opening transactions. If you still want to limit yourself to only this indicator, then try to combine its readings on several time frames and enter the market only when the forecasts on different time scales coincide. The principle of multi-timeframe analysis is described in more detail in the lesson Three Elder Screens.

Forecasts Based on Technical Indicators

WMIFor – predictive indicator for binary options

The WMIFor indicator was developed for binary options trading, but it can also be adapted for Forex trading. It is a predictive signaling tool. WMIFor is multi-currency, so it can be used for trading on any pairs.

Description of WMIFor

Like the previous tool, WMIFor builds its forecasts based on current statistics and historical chart data.

The indicator works in the MT4 terminal. It is not natively built into the platform, so it must be installed manually. To do this, download the distribution files and place them in the “Indicators” folder, located inside the data directory of your terminal. After moving the files, be sure to restart the platform for all changes to take effect.

After installation, the indicator will appear on the chart. It will look like a blue curved line, which is like a continuation of the main graph. This curve is the price forecast line.

The calculation formula of the WMIFor indicator is based on the Spearman rank correlation principle. If we explain the principle of operation of the mechanism in simple language, we can say that the tool searches for areas in past segments of the chart where the price moved in the same way as at the moment. The indicator determines how the price has moved in history, then copies this data and overlays it on the current chart.

In addition to the blue forecast line, the indicator also displays a small information plate on the chart, which displays the degree of accuracy of the forecast made (in percentage).

Important! Consider only those forecasts for which the accuracy percentage is 85 units or more. If the percentage is less, the signal should not be taken into consideration.

In addition to the predictive blue line, the WMIFor indicator also shows two horizontal lines on the chart, which indicate the boundaries of the historical area. These lines can be moved manually, thereby independently setting the width of the area for searching for signals.

Instrument signals

The principle of using WMIFor in binary options is as follows:

• If the indicator predicts a price increase, and the informer indicates the accuracy of the signal is 85% or higher, you should buy a Call option.
• If the instrument indicates a further decrease in price (the informer says the signal is 85% accurate), then you should purchase a Put option.

The big advantage of WMIFor is that it allows you to calculate the expiration time of a transaction in advance. To do this, you need to determine the target point at which your trade will close in profit, and then count the number of candles before it. We multiply the resulting number by the timeframe value. For example, there are 4 candles left to the goal, the work is carried out on a five-minute timeframe. To calculate expiration time, multiply 4 by 5TF. The result is 20 minutes.

How to configure the WMIFor indicator

The WMIFor indicator has extensive settings. To tailor it to your trading style, you can change the following input parameters:

• "OffSet" Prediction line shift coefficient. The default value is "1". This means that the analysis will be shown immediately after the current candle closes. You can experiment with the coefficient and shift the forecast to the side, thereby checking the accuracy of the WMIFor signals.
• "Is Offset Start Fixed". This variable is responsible for shifting the boundaries of the analyzed areas. If you set this to true, the borders will be fixed and you can only move them manually. When set to false, the edges will constantly move as new bars are formed.
• Past Bars. The number of bars in history that will be used to build the forecast.
• Forecast Bars. The number of future candles for which the indicator will make a forecast.
• "Max Alts". The percentage of maximum matches in the historical period of time at which the indicator will begin to build a predictive line. If the number of matches does not reach this threshold, the prediction will fail.
• "Show Best Pattern". When set to “True”, the indicator will build a predictive line based on the best of all matches. If the value is “False”, average indicators will be used.
• "Is Exact Time". Responsible for taking time into account when analyzing history. If you set the variable to “true”, the indicator will compare only those parts of the chart where the time coincides. For example, if the forecast falls at the opening/closing time of the session, then the analysis will be carried out only on similar historical sections falling at the same time. It is not recommended to disable this option, as it significantly affects the quality of research.

The remaining parameters are responsible for the visual design of the indicator. You can customize the color of the predictive curve line, the background and font color of the informer, the font type, and so on.

Important! When switching a chart from one time frame to another, the instrument may prompt you to download quotes. It is recommended that you allow this action.

The WMIFor indicator can be called one of the best forecasting tools, but we do not recommend using it alone, without additional filtering. In addition, it is highly not recommended to open positions in case of a forecast against the trend. Consider only those signals that correspond to the direction of the current trend.

Why are forecasts needed?

Experience helps you make good money on the stock exchange. To get it, you need to carry out many transactions, as well as learn to independently and correctly analyze. For those who have recently become a trader, Alpari forecasts will come in handy.

There are plenty of sites on the Internet that provide estimates based on the movement of assets. You can subscribe to them and regularly receive information that will become a good trading assistant. True, access to them may be paid. This applies to forecasts of foreign analytical agencies.

For information!

Alpari forecasts are free and available to registered users on the broker's website.

Figure 1. Forecasts from Alpari are located in the analytical section of the broker's web resource.

You can find expert opinions in the analytics section (category “Market Reviews”).

Calendar

On the Alpari website you can use the economic calendar service.

Here you can find up-to-date information on important economic events in countries that can affect the movement of a particular currency pair. Moreover, information is published not only on past news, but also on upcoming ones.

The FXSTREET calendar will help you make forecasts for the future, based on estimates of expected volatility noted in the trader’s working tool.

There are separate columns with actual, predicted and previous indicators.

Analysis tools and services

In the analytical section on the Alpari portal, the user has access to tools for conducting high-quality fundamental and technical analysis, as well as special forecasting services, such as Autochartist. The last option will help the trader decide on the right decision.

Figure 2. Alpari’s automatic forecast can be made through the Autochartist program.

The program works automatically and determines, based on the given characteristics, the maximum probability of the direction of the selected trend.