What does the GBP NZD exchange rate depend on?
The most important thing to understand is that the pound/New Zealand dollar (GBPNZD) exchange rate does not depend on economic news or statements by officials, but is associated only with changes in the pound and New Zealand dollar indices . Therefore, if
- trends in the GBP and NZD indices are directed in different directions, then the GBP NZD currency pair will show either a bullish or bearish trend;
- trends in these indices have a unidirectional movement, then a flat movement will be visible on the chart of the GBP NZD pair.
For example, let's take two charts of the GBP index and the NZD index. We highlight in green the periods when the trends in the indices went in opposite directions. You can check the presence of a trend in the GBP/NZD currency pair on your terminal.
Dollar Index (DXY)
First, let's look at the forecast for the Dollar Index. As you can see on the chart, the market is currently in an upward trend. Well, an uptrend, of course, also has a trend line, which is a strong support level. Now a strong support zone has formed on the chart, which is located approximately at the level of 98.15 – 98.20. As you can see, this zone is formed by the support line of the uptrend and the horizontal support level, which has changed its “polarity” more than once before.
Based on all of the above, my forecast for the Dollar Index will be as follows - we are looking for buy patterns approximately in the area of 98.15 - 98.20 and the target of our purchases will be a level located approximately in the area of 99.20.
Selection of the best indicators for forecasting the GBP NZD exchange rate
Along with the pound and New Zealand dollar indices, the GBP NZD rate is also affected by the levels of market maker order accumulations . On the presented chart you can see how the GBP NZD rate moves from one MF level to the next. It should be noted that only the Masterforex-V Academy provides MF order levels not only for major currency pairs, but also for their cross rates.
The Ministry of Finance divides these levels into important and secondary.
Next, it is recommended to install the free AO_ZOTIK (Zotik) indicators and the WPR_VSMARK oscillator on the terminals, which are distributed free of charge at the Academy.
Already this set of tools will give an understanding of the logic of movements of Forex currency pairs. You can learn about the remaining instruments (of which there are more than 30) during professional training in Forex and the Exchange at the MasterForex-V Academy.
Pound New Zealand dollar exchange rate and a number of myths from the Internet
There is an opinion that the GBPNZD exchange rate is influenced by:
- changes in the capitalization of the national exchanges of Great Britain and New Zealand (more precisely, the London Stock Exchange LSE and the New Zealand Wellington Exchange);
- various economic news that are regularly released on the economy of Great Britain or New Zealand (on the contrary, the GBP NZD exchange rate and news live “by themselves”);
- FTSE 100 or NZSE40 stock index quotes on stock exchanges in London or Wellington. For comparison, here are the charts for the FTSE 100 and the New Zealand dollar pound. Do you see that they are similar? So we don't.
The next factor influencing the GBP NZD rate is the trading volumes (Sell or Buy) for New Zealand dollar (6N) and pound sterling (6B) futures, which are traded on the CME exchange . As a rule, a strong movement (impulse) in pound or New Zealand dollar futures occurs with increasing volumes, and during corrections, volumes fall. In the article Basics of Volume Theory, you will also learn why you cannot trust this tool 100%.
For example, here is a chart with volumes for New Zealand dollar 6N futures:
EUR/NZD
And finally, let's look at EUR/NZD. And on the chart we can observe a rather sharp upward trend, practically without any serious pullbacks, except for a small downward correction. And at the moment, the price has already come close to a strong resistance zone, which is located approximately at the level of 1.7575.
Considering the current situation, my forecast will sound like this - we sell the euro with a subsequent target, approximately at the level of 1.7400, which, again, is a strong psychological support level. It is also worth noting that the price may once again go to test the resistance level of 1.7575 and only then will it finally move down towards my target. Therefore, we are looking for patterns to sell from the level of 1.7575.
But! If the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.7575, which immediately becomes a support level, then the sell forecast may be canceled. And then buying from this level will become more relevant after the price returns to it. But let’s leave this development of events for my subsequent forecasts.
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And that’s all for today, dear friends!
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Trends for the GBP NZD currency pair
Movements on the GBP NZD pair (as well as on other currency pairs) can be divided into
- LONG-term trends (tracked on timeframes from Daily3 and higher), lasting several years. Classic reversal patterns precede every trend (for example, patterns such as diamond, diamond, head and shoulders, etc.).
- MEDIUM-TERM trends (usually tracked on timeframes starting from H8), lasting several weeks. Such trends usually last for a week or more. These timeframes already show real or false breakouts or rebounds from MF levels (clusters of market maker orders). Classic trend continuation patterns are also present here - these are various triangles - symmetrical, expanding, ascending and descending triangles, as well as a flag, pennant, wedge, etc.).
Trading and earnings on the pound New Zealand dollar
Unfortunately, trading only one GBP NZD pair will not give the desired rate of profit, since only approximately 20% of all movements of the pound/New Zealand dollar currency pair are traded in a trend, which brings the main profit to the trader, and the remaining 80% of the time the pair is traded in complex flat-like movements.
Masterforex-V Academy teaches you to choose not ONE specific market or instrument, but different ones: Forex currency market, commodity market, cryptocurrency market, futures or stock market, and so on. A successful trader does not care about markets or any specific instruments, but about the presence of a trend, which could be for the New Zealand dollar this month, for cryptocurrencies next month, for stock indices next, etc. and so on. Is the idea clear?
It is trading on DIFFERENT markets and DIFFERENT instruments that provides constant earnings of up to 300%-700% for several years, which is confirmed by the statistics of our Rebate - auto-copying service pro-rebate.com.
Trading forecasts and ideas for 05/19/2021
Hello. Below are several recommendations for trading on the Forex market as of May 19, 2021
USDCAD
The USDCAD pair formed a Doji pattern at the support level of 1.20500. The level is quite strong; we haven’t been below it for several years. And at a minimum, we should expect an upward correction here. I don't expect a big correction, because... There is already a large predominance of buyers in transaction statistics. Let's look at how the situation develops and whether there will be any sell signals. P
XAGUSD
On Silver, we slightly missed the resistance level of 28.86 and formed a Pin bar pattern. We'll probably stop here for a downward correction. Presumably in the area of the trend line. I am not considering sales here, because... they are against the trend.
Fundamental news
Inflation indicators of developed countries, rates of the People's Bank of China and Fed Minutes are the main drivers of stock indices trends this week.
Asia-Pacific
- KOSPI + 1.23%
- SSE + 0.32%, SZSE – 0.04%, Hang Seng + 1.42%
- Nikkei 225 + 2.09%
- S&P/ASX 200 + 0.60%
Asian investors unexpectedly reacted positively to the fall in Japan's GDP in the first quarter, which exceeded analysts' expectations. Problems in the economy offset investors' fears about the strong rise in inflation in the Land of the Rising Sun.
In the morning news came out by country:
- Australia: wages, consumer confidence and leading economic indicators
- Japan: industrial production
USA
- Dow Jones – 0.78%
- NASDAQ – 0.56%
- S&P500 – 0.83%
Speech by Fed Deputy Chairman Richard Clarida at the FBI Atlanta online conference
American investors sold off stocks on Tuesday after the release of reports on the real estate market. The number of permits issued and the number of new buildings erected turned out to be lower than analysts' forecasts, pointing to weakening investment demand.
Before the news was released, indices were growing in the premarket, thanks to the speech of Fed Deputy Chairman Richard Clarida, who revealed the absence of plans to reduce QE at an online conference at the Atlanta Fed.
Evening statistics:
- 15-30 – Inflation in Canada
- 21-00 – Minutes of the Fed meeting
Eurozone
- CAC40 – 0.22%
- FTSE100 +0.03%
- DAX – 0.07%
European markets, except for the British stock exchange, were unable to maintain the growth taken at the beginning of trading after the release of statistics. It showed unexpectedly positive indicators for the labor market in the UK - an increase in employment and a decrease in unemployment was better than analysts' forecasts. Stock indices fell with the release of US real estate indicators.
Statistics for the first half of the day:
- 9-00 – UK inflation
- 11-00 – ECB Financial Stability Report
- 12-00 – Eurozone inflation
Cryptocurrency news
Bears eased pressure on cryptocurrencies; the total value of digital assets fell by 0.81% on Tuesday, with daily trading volumes decreasing by 17.9%.
Bitcoin continued to fall and, judging by information from the blockchain, investors were preparing to liquidate the next part of their positions. This is evidenced by the influx of maximum BTC to exchange sites, which will be sold out in the coming days.
Perhaps investors are getting rid of Bitcoin amid another attack on the digital currency by the Chinese authorities, who are once again cutting off power to miners and taking BTC-producing mines in Inner Mongolia under special control. The actions of the PRC led to a decrease in the security of the blockchain by 20%.
However, Bitcoin’s troubles do not hinder the growth of altcoins. Yesterday's leaders in the top 100 cryptocurrencies were: MATIC (+ 41.67%), SUSHI (+ 30.58%), ONE (+ 30.31%). The growth of these tokens is driven by corporate news.
Best regards, Artem aka TeaDrinker TradeLikeaPro
Recommended brokers for trading and investing in the pound New Zealand dollar pair
The broker rating of the Masterforex-V Academy, which has existed for over 10 years, notes that the TOP 5 brokers have all the financial instruments necessary for investing and trading, and in particular the GBP NZD currency pair.
For example, the NordFX broker contains various instruments and markets in one trading platform, MetaTrader 4:
- 33 currency pairs for trading, including EUR USD, GBP USD, USD JPY, AUDNZD, USD CHF, USD CAD, CADJPY, NZD USD, NZDCAD, AUD USD, AUDCAD, USD RUB, GBPCHF, EUR RUB, USD SEK, USDZAR, USD NOK, GBPCAD, USD CNY, EUR CHF, USDSGD, EUR JPY, EUR GBP, CADCHF, EUR NZD, AUDCHF, EUR AUD, EUR CAD and others;
- stock indices (S&P 500, DAX 30 index, FTSE 100, Dow Jones 30 Index, etc.), as well as cryptocurrencies, CFDs on oil, gold and silver.
Traders will also like
- the presence of popular trading platforms MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5 with a package of indicators and oscillators for technical analysis of charts;
- the ability to trade using various strategies - scalping, day trading or swing trading, etc.;
- opportunity to open an account from $10;
- the presence of low spreads (from 0.2 points) and high swaps (up to 5-6 dollars per day for one standard lot).
Traders trade no less successfully with other recommended brokers: FxPro and the Swiss Dukascopy Bank SA and Swissquote Bank SA.
Gold. XAUUSD
H4-graph. The gold market remains flat.
The current phase is upward, so local short-term transactions can be viewed upward. At the same time, there is not too much room for growth: on the path of the bulls right now there is a wide pivot zone of 1470.00-1472.00, and behind it relatively close is the resistance of 1480.00. From each of these zones another transition to the descending phase is possible. Trading inside a flat is not the most pleasant experience, because... there is no consistent directional movement, when sharp impulses and updates of local extremes are possible (which makes it difficult to limit risks), and “sleep mode” into which the market can go.
If we look at the same picture through the prism of the hourly timeframe, we will see that the flat on H4 is a triangular accumulation. The expected area for testing the upper border of the triangle is the zone 1471.18. A move higher is extremely unlikely. Gold will receive support in the area of 1,461 dollars per troy ounce.
Thus, for now, we buy to 1471.18, and then turn into sales to 1461.00.
