What's happened
- On March 9, the price of North Sea Brent oil fell by more than 27%, falling below $32 per barrel, the price of WTI fell below $30 per barrel. During trading, the price of Brent fell by a maximum of 31%, to $31.27 per barrel.
- The price of Brent oil began to decline on Friday, March 6, amid reports of the inability of OPEC+ countries to agree on a new production cut.
- Against the backdrop of the collapse in oil prices, the rates of American and European currencies soared on the international foreign exchange market. At the moment, the dollar exchange rate on Forex reached 75 rubles, the euro - 85, but in the afternoon the Russian currency regained part of the fall. Currency trading on the Moscow Exchange is not carried out on March 9 due to a day off.
- The Bank of Russia announced that it will not buy currency on the market as part of the fiscal rule for at least 30 days.
- Falling oil prices and the strengthening of the dollar and euro affected Asian indices. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange Hang Seng Index fell by 1,064 points (4.07%) to 25,071, as of 04:54 Moscow time. The Nikkei 225 index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange also fell at the opening of trading. It fell by 1196 (5.77%) points to 19553 points as of 05:10 Moscow time. As of 05:17 Moscow time, on the Shanghai Stock Exchange the SSEC index fell by 2.11% to 2970.75 points.
- European stock exchanges opened lower on Monday. The London FTSE 100 index fell by 8.54% at the opening, the German DAX - by 8.09%, the French CAC 40 - by 6.31%.
- Russian securities fell sharply at the opening of trading in London. Gazprom shares fell by 24.82%, to $4.12 as of 11:22 Moscow time, Rosneft - by 23.54%, to $4.41, Novatek - by 33.6%, to $92 .5, Gazprom Neft - by 11.62%, to $24.35. Norilsk Nickel receipts lost 10.57% in price and amounted to $28.96, NLMK decreased by 13.6% to $15.09, Severstal decreased by 18.9% to $9.63, by 5. 89%, up to $33.08.
- The price of shares of the Saudi Arabian oil company Saudi Aramco, against the backdrop of the rupture of the OPEC+ agreement, following trading on March 8, fell by 9.09%, to 30 rials (about $8), falling below the IPO level for the first time.
- The American indices Dow Jones and NASDAQ sank by about 7% at the opening of trading. Because of this, trading was suspended in the markets.
- On the evening of March 9, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin convened a meeting on economic issues. At it, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the state has money to fulfill obligations and for national projects.
Oil deal between Russia and OPEC falls apart Economy
Renewable oil: myth or reality?
Rice. 1. Share of hydrocarbons in the global energy balance, %. Diagram provided by the author
Hydrocarbons are the main source of energy for our civilization. There are currently no other energy sources that can compete with them in terms of availability, distribution, efficiency and safety. The huge investments in renewable and alternative energy sources made in recent years have had little impact on the global energy balance. The share of hydrocarbons is still around 57% (Fig. 1). How many years will we be able to use hydrocarbons to cover our energy needs? To answer this question, it is necessary first of all to discuss the real mechanism of formation of oil and gas accumulations on our planet. It is this discussion that this article is devoted to.
"New" oil.
First, some facts. January 12, 2010 on the island. Haiti was hit by a strong earthquake with a magnitude of seven. Just a few days after the earthquake, large oil reserves were discovered offshore the island.
Previously conducted searches for oil in this area yielded negative results.
In June 1948, exploration well No. 3 produced an oil gusher, which marked the discovery of the Romashkinskoye oil field. According to initial estimates, the field's recoverable reserves amounted to 710 million tons of oil. However, to date, more than 3 billion tons of oil have already been produced here, and the field continues to be developed. In this case, very interesting phenomena are observed. Typically, when developing an oil field, the properties of residual oil deteriorate, its density and viscosity increase. However, the opposite effect was observed on Romashkinsky Minnibaevskaya Square. In a number of wells, periodic decreases in the density and viscosity of oil to the initial level were detected. In other words, “new” oil appeared in the reservoir. In addition, hundreds of inversion wells were identified in which a long-term decline in flow rates was suddenly replaced by their increase, which clearly contradicts the “law” of falling oil production.
The development of the oil field in the Tersko-Sunzha region in Chechnya began in 1895, and by the beginning of the Great Patriotic War, due to severe watering of the wells, most of them were mothballed. A few years later, the reactivated wells began to produce anhydrous oil. By the beginning of the 90s of the last century, the wells were flooded again and were not operated for more than 10 years. When production resumed, production rates increased significantly, and some wells began to produce anhydrous oil again.
Similar cases of the arrival of “new” oil were recorded in a number of fields around the world. Where does the “new” oil come from in old, often depleted fields?
In September 2009, British Petroleum (BP) announced the discovery of what may be the company's largest ever oil field (Tiber Oilfield) in the Gulf of Mexico. The well that discovered the productive formation was drilled from an offshore drilling platform to a depth of 10,685 m with a water thickness of 1,260 m. At such a depth there are no source rocks; the thermobaric conditions are too high to maintain the composition of the oil for a long time. Where does the oil in this field come from?
According to BP at the end of 2014, proven reserves in the countries of the Near and Middle East accounted for about 48% of world oil reserves and about 43% for natural gas. In accordance with the generally accepted quantitative geochemical model, all source rocks in the region can provide no more than 6% of proven reserves. Where is the source of the remaining 94% of oil and gas?
Modern ideas about the genesis of hydrocarbons
The whole variety of proposed models for the origin of hydrocarbons and the formation of hydrocarbon deposits is combined in the form of two alternative concepts.
In a simplified way, the concept of biogenic origin of hydrocarbons can be described as follows. From the point of view of this concept, all hydrocarbons on our planet, without exception, arose from the remains of organic matter, which accumulated for many millions of years at the bottom of ancient seas and lakes, sank to a depth of several kilometers and, as a result of chemical transformations, was transformed into organic matter - kerogen. With further immersion deep into the earth's crust, particles of dispersed micro-oil were released from the kerogen, which, in the process of primary migration, came from the oil source rocks to the reservoir rocks. During the process of secondary migration, the concentration of hydrocarbons in traps and the formation of oil and gas deposits occurred. That is, in accordance with this concept, the process of formation of hydrocarbon accumulations is very long and takes millions of years. Within the framework of this concept, it is very difficult to explain the rapid replenishment of oil reserves in deposits.
However, there is another point of view - the concept of abiogenic deep origin of hydrocarbons. This concept is based on the idea that the generation of hydrocarbons occurs in the deep layers of the Earth due to abiogenic (inorganic) synthesis. Hydrocarbons formed in the depths migrate along deep faults to the upper layers of the earth's crust and accumulate in accumulations of oil and natural gas. Oil and gas potential is considered as one of the manifestations of the natural process of degassing of the Earth, which created the hydrosphere, atmosphere and biosphere in the early stages of its development. As experiments conducted by different groups of researchers in different laboratories have shown, abiogenic synthesis of hydrocarbons can take place under conditions similar to the thermobaric conditions of the Earth's upper mantle, or in the conditions of the lower layers of the earth's crust.
Laboratory experiments on the abiogenic synthesis of hydrocarbons under conditions similar to the conditions of the upper mantle at depths of 100–150 km, where pressure reaches 50 thousand atmospheres and temperatures exceed 1200 degrees Celsius, confirmed the possibility of the formation and preservation of complex hydrocarbons. The resulting hydrocarbon systems were similar in composition to natural gas. At the same time, changing thermobaric conditions (depth) makes it possible to obtain natural gas of various compositions - from “dry” with a methane content of more than 96% to “fat”, where the gas composition, in addition to methane, includes various normal and cyclic hydrocarbons of the methane series. Moreover, in experiments reproducing the thermobaric conditions of the upper mantle, hydrocarbon systems similar to gas condensates, ketones, aldehydes and other complex hydrocarbons have already been obtained.
The process of abiogenic synthesis of methane in the lower layers of the earth's crust is possible through the reaction of water containing dissolved CO2 with olivine with the formation of serpentine and magnetite and the release of a significant amount of hydrogen (serpentinization process). Calculations show that the amount of methane and hydrogen formed during the serpentinization process is several orders of magnitude higher than all the world's oil reserves. A clear confirmation of the serpentinization process are “black smokers” - deep-sea fountains of highly mineralized water, saturated with methane and hydrogen and heated to 350 degrees Celsius, found at the bottom of the oceans.
Yes, natural gas in the upper mantle or methane in the lower crust is not yet oil. But these substances can penetrate through deep faults into the upper layers of the crust of our planet, where zones of natural catalysts are present at depths of 3–15 km, and serve as the basis for the synthesis of oil. As numerous experiments conducted by researchers from different countries have shown, oil formation can occur in the earth's crust at temperatures below 400 degrees Celsius as a result of polycondensation processes using natural catalysts. This process is pulsating in nature, thereby providing recharge to oil and gas fields.
In this case there are also “source” rocks. These are the catalytic zones of the earth's crust. This is where oil is born. But it is born as a result of catalytic synthesis, the basis of which is abiogenic deep hydrocarbons.
If the described mechanism for the formation of oil and gas accumulations is correct, then under each giant or large oil and gas field there should be a network of deep faults. The way it is. Without exception, all giant oil and gas fields “sit” on a network of deep faults, which serve as channels for their replenishment with deep hydrocarbons.
Thus, the “new” oil from the island. Haiti, Tatarstan and Chechnya appeared due to the next influx of deep-seated oil. The oil of the Tiber field is relatively young, entering porous horizons from deep layers. And the absence of a biogenic source for the gigantic hydrocarbon reserves of the Middle East is explained by the fact that hydrocarbons were not formed as a result of the transformation of organic matter, but entered reservoir rocks along deep faults - oil from catalytic “oil source” zones, natural gas from the upper mantle and lower layers of the earth bark.
The described mechanism of formation of oil and gas deposits explains the existence of supergiant oil fields at depths of over 10 km, the discrepancy between identified biogenic sources and proven hydrocarbon reserves for most giant oil and gas fields, and the presence of large hydrocarbon deposits in the crystalline basement in the absence of oil source formations.
Of course, the description of the mechanism discussed in this article is given only schematically, but nevertheless, two very important conclusions can be drawn on its basis.
1. The main search feature of methods for detecting oil and gas accumulations is the search for possible traps - porous and fractured rocks capable of accommodating hydrocarbons, covered with a layer of impenetrable rocks. Now we can add a new search feature - identification of possible deposit recharge channels. The use of these two search features will significantly increase the likelihood of discovering new, primarily giant oil and gas fields.
2. Oil and natural gas are renewable natural resources. The development of hydrocarbon deposits should be based on the balance of recharge and withdrawal volumes during their operation. If hydrocarbons are produced at a rate of extraction equal to the rate of replenishment, then the field can be exploited for a very long time, perhaps hundreds of years. This will require a radical change in the methods and modes of operation of oil and gas fields, the development and implementation of fundamentally new types of equipment and materials.
Why did prices fall?
- Amid the outbreak of the new coronavirus threatening the global economy, a meeting of oil ministers of OPEC and countries outside the organization, including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan (OPEC+), was held in Vienna on March 6. For the first time since 2021, the meeting participants were unable to agree on the terms of the deal to reduce oil production, and it will cease to apply on April 1.
- At the last meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia took opposing positions. Moscow refused to further reduce production and proposed extending the deal on current terms (oil production reduction by 1.7 million barrels per day) for the second quarter of 2021, and Riyadh advocated a reduction of another 1.5 million barrels per day until the end of the year, Bloomberg and Reuters reported.
