The meeting between Putin and Biden will help the ruble. Financial market review from May 25
The trading session on the Moscow Exchange ended with growth in the main indicators. On the global foreign exchange market, the US dollar updated its minimum since January against the base currencies
Photo: depositphotos.com
Stock
The main indicators of the US stock market remained virtually unchanged in the first half of the trading session. By 20:00 Moscow time, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.04%, the S&P 500 index lost about 0.1%, and the Nasdaq100 fell by 0.14%.
The trading session on the Moscow Exchange ended with an increase in the main indicators. The Moscow Exchange index added about 0.7% and closed at 3,686 points. The RTS index rose by 0.6% and ended the trading session at 1,580 points.
OFZ
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation will hold two auctions for the placement of OFZ on Wednesday, May 26. At the first auction, the department will offer OFZ-PD 26233 securities with maturity on July 18, 2035 for 10.01 billion rubles. At the second auction, OFZ-PD securities of issue 26235 with a maturity date of March 12, 2031 in the amount of 30 billion will be placed.
Currency
On the global foreign exchange market, the US dollar updated its minimum since January compared to the base currencies. By 20:00 Moscow time, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies DXY rolled back to the area of 89.7 points.
Market participants continue to short the dollar, believing that low US rates will lead to liquidity flowing abroad as economies around the world recover from the pandemic. During the evening trading session, the ruble changed little against the dollar. By 20:30 Moscow time, the dollar was around 73.50 rubles.
Hopes for a positive outcome of the upcoming meeting between the leaders of Russia and the United States may play in favor of the Russian currency. Vladimir Putin will meet with his American counterpart Joe Biden on June 16 in Geneva, the Kremlin said on Tuesday. The White House also announced that the two presidents will meet on June 16 in Geneva.
“Leaders will discuss the full range of pressing issues as we seek to restore predictability and stability in Russian-American relations,” the White House said in a statement.
This meeting will be the first for Putin and Biden since the latter was elected president of the United States. Previously, they only communicated by phone.
Oil
Prices for standard oil grades increased slightly. The cost of futures contracts for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 20:30 Moscow time was around $68.5 per barrel. The futures price for WTI oil at trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by this time was about $66.5 per barrel.
Add BFM.ru to your news sources?
The information presented is an analytical review, does not constitute individual investment advice, does not take into account the client's portfolio, experience, knowledge, or attitude to risk and return and may not be suitable for the investor. The specified financial instruments or transactions may not correspond to your investment profile, financial situation, investment experience, or investment goals. Determining the suitability of a financial instrument or transaction for investment objectives, investment horizon and risk tolerance is the responsibility of the investor. The Company is not responsible for possible losses of the investor in case of transactions or investing in financial instruments mentioned in the Review. We recommend that investors do not use this review as the sole source of information when making an investment decision. Before making an investment decision, an investor should carefully consider his or her financial situation and consult with a financial advisor to obtain a full understanding of the risks involved and to ensure that the products and/or securities and/or financial instruments selected are appropriate to his or her needs and situation.
The information provided cannot be considered as a recommendation to invest funds, as well as guarantees or promises of future investment returns. Any information and any judgments, opinions and estimates provided in the review are judgments at the time of its release and are subject to change without notice. The information presented is prepared on the basis of sources that, in the opinion of the authors, are reliable, but at the same time reflects solely the opinion of the authors regarding the objects analyzed. Although this review has been compiled with the greatest possible care, neither the authors nor the Company represent or warrant, expressly or impliedly, its accuracy or completeness or make any representation that the information or estimates contained in this review are true, accurate or complete. Copying, reproduction and/or distribution of this material, in part or in full, without the written permission of QBiF LLC is strictly prohibited. You can obtain information about products, familiarize yourself with the terms of the trust management agreement and other documents provided for by regulations in the field of financial markets at the address: Russia, 123112, Moscow, Presnenskaya embankment, building 8, building 1, floor 11, room IN, room 11, phone: +7 (495) 988-98-21, as well as on the Internet information and telecommunications network at: https://qbfin.ru.
Marketing research in Russia: market size, drivers and threats to the industry
The market is recovering.
The turnover of the marketing research market in Russia in 2021 increased by 6% and reached 21.3 billion rubles. Such data are presented in a study presented by the organizing committee of RIN (Russian Research Week). It was conducted as part of the ESOMAR GMR survey.
Positive dynamics indicate that the market is gradually returning to pre-crisis levels, says Alexander Shashkin, CEO of OMI (Online Market Intelligence) and representative of ESOMAR in Russia. “At the same time, new methods have shown growth: online surveys have overtaken telephone surveys for the first time, big data analytics and research in the field of the effectiveness of digital marketing are growing - analysis of traffic, advertising, social networks”
. In dollar terms, companies' research costs in 2018 decreased to $340 million from $345 million. The expert explains this by changes in exchange rates.
There are more Russian clients.
More than half of marketing research is ordered by Russian companies. In 2021, clients from Russia accounted for 36%, in 2021 and 2018. - 53%. At the same time, the share of foreign companies among research customers fell from 21% to 12% over three years.
“There are two types of foreign clients - those who already work in Russia, and those who are just looking at the Russian market. “Localized” clients continue to work quite steadily, but orders from abroad are indeed becoming somewhat smaller. We attribute this to the tense international agenda and sanctions. Foreign companies try to avoid additional risks and often choose other countries for development."
, explains Alexander Shashkin.
All focus on FMCG.
More than half (51%) of research last year was devoted to consumer goods. Another 13% came from sociology and politics. The remaining segments took up about 5–6% of all research.
Most often in 2021, companies ordered research into the food, beverage and confectionery segment. However, the share of this category has decreased by 10% since 2021. At the same time, in all three years the demand for research in the segments: “Tobacco products and cigarettes” and “Over-the-counter drugs (OTC), cosmetics and hygiene products” has been growing.
New research methods are growing.
Of all the methods, quantitative research remains the most popular—they accounted for 73% of the total in 2021. At the same time, the segment that included analysis of secondary data, desk and digital research showed the greatest dynamics - its share grew from 5% to 14% over three years. According to experts, it is most likely new types of digital research that are growing, but desk research may also increase its share due to its low cost compared to primary data collection.
Among quantitative methods, online research showed the greatest dynamics, the share of which increased from 18% in 2021 to 26% in 2018. In-depth personal interviews grew in the category of qualitative research, increasing their share from 17% in 2021 to 23% in 2018 G.
Market prospects
In the future, according to Alexander Shashkin, the growth of research related to planning and assessing the effectiveness of digital marketing and understanding how people behave and buy online may continue.
The expert highlighted the study of social networks as a separate growing trend. “It’s interesting to look not only at lifestyle, but also at attitudes towards certain products and brands, at the dynamics of information dissemination.” At the same time, the expert noted that on the client side, analytics of one’s own large and small data is gaining popularity, “hence a slight decrease in the share of traditional research methods.” Experts also included the following opportunities that will contribute to market development
:
- Development of networks of regional companies, which allows for large-scale research within the country.
- Increasing the number of potential customers and engaging in small business marketing research
- Accelerating and reducing the cost of research by attracting new technologies.
Among the threats to the market, experts name the following factors:
- Companies began to conduct complex and expensive strategic research less frequently and switched to simple tactical ones.
- Research companies do not have their own capabilities to analyze ready-made data due to poor technological equipment. As a result, the segment comes under the jurisdiction of IT companies.
- Market development is also hampered by political instability, which creates isolation in the world community and problems with international integration.
- Customers are starting to do more research on their own.
The study was conducted through an online survey. Sampling: companies engaged in marketing and socio-political research on the Russian market, as well as companies developing software for the research market. The list of companies for the survey was taken from the Sociologos portal, plus from the list of members of OIROM, Group 7/89 and active participants of ResearchEXPO 2021, 2021, 2021 and 2021. Total companies on the list: 583. 110 companies took part in the survey (19% of market participants, which account for 65% of the total turnover).
Important changes in 2021
In the new year, investors will be affected by several important changes, especially in terms of tax legislation.
1. A progressive taxation scheme for individuals is introduced. The personal income tax rate will increase to 15%, but only for those individuals whose income exceeds 5 million rubles per year. In this case, a tax at a rate of 15% will be levied on amounts exceeding 5 million; on the remaining amount the tax rate will be the same 13%. All income will be taken into account when calculating the tax base. You don’t have to do the calculations yourself; everything must be taken into account by the tax service. But in 2021-22, sources of income will not be summed up, and 15% will need to be paid only for those sources of income that exceeded 5 million. There are a number of exceptions: income from the sale of property (except for securities), donation or receipt of insurance payments or payments for pension programs - for them the rate will remain 13%.
2. Starting from 2021, the rules for taxation of deposits have changed. Until 2021, income received from exceeding the key rate by at least 5% was taxed at a rate of 35%. If the key rate was 4.25% (as it is now), then a deposit with a rate above 9.25% would be taxed. Moreover, not the entire amount would be taxed, but only the excess amount.
Now the tax will be collected according to the following scheme: we take 1 million rubles, multiply it by the key rate in force at the beginning of the year - and we get an amount that will not be taxed. 1,000,000 * 4.25 = 42,500 rubles. If this year you earn 100,000 rubles from interest on deposits, the taxable amount will be 0 = 57,500. Tax will be withheld from it at a rate of 13%. This tax will be calculated by the tax office, which will receive information from banks.
3. Taxation of bonds will change. Now a tax at a rate of 13% will have to be paid on coupon income and on income from the sale/redemption of all types of bonds. If previously there were tax breaks for OFZs, municipal bonds and corporate bonds issued after 2017, they are now cancelled.
4. An investment deduction under IIS for income can now only be received from official wages. Previously, a deduction for contributions to IIS could be obtained from any income taxed at a rate of 13%. From 2021, this type of deduction applies only to the main tax base. It cannot be applied to securities transactions. Thus, the deduction for the contribution will be of interest only to those who receive an official salary. But the tax benefit of long-term ownership of the Central Bank and the carry forward of losses from previous years remain.
Return on Russian assets 1995-2020
Nominal returns of Russian financial assets since 1995. Below are the average annual returns for the last 15 and 10 years. Over the past 15 years, the most profitable investments have been Russian and American stocks, as well as precious metals. Over the past 10 years, American stocks have generated the highest returns.
Real return on assets adjusted for inflation.
Profitability charts for Russian stocks, government bonds, gold, inflation, cash dollars and bank deposits. The callout shows the average annual nominal return.
Return on model portfolios
Investment portfolios from foreign ETFs for 2021 showed the following returns in dollars:
- Aggressive: 13.3%
- Moderate: 11.08%
- Conservative: 9.06%
Information basis for conducting marketing research in financial markets
Typically, marketing research in the financial market is based on 4 blocks of marketing information. These include:
- primary internal reporting mediated by the company’s own data;
- primary results of special research, which contain information about the external marketing environment and potential consumers;
- secondary marketing information, including government statistics, third-party research results, market reviews, media publications, etc.;
- secondary internal analytical information.
Thus, the marketing information system underlying management decision-making is formed from 4 blocks, which, in fact, are determined by only two factors - the source and nature of the information used when conducting marketing research in the financial market. Thus, information used in marketing research can be primary or secondary, obtained from external or internal sources.
