Dividends on Tatneft-p shares in 2021 - size and register closure date

Tatneft - hundred hundred reasons (not) TO TAKE RIGHT NOW!!!

“So, my friend, don’t you want to be richer?” - “I’m not saying that; Even though I thank God for what I have; But you yourself, master, know that while a person lives, he wants more and more: such is the light here. I am tea, because your treasures are not enough for you; “And it wouldn’t hurt me to be richer.”

Ivan Krylov

The fable “The Farmer and the Shoemaker” (1811)

Greed is an integral human quality, glorified by ancient thinkers, classics of literature and underlying many of our actions.
And where else, if not on the stock exchange, can one witness human greed in all its various forms? Because it is difficult to be greedy and sane at the same time!!! Yesterday, 04/28/21, the Board of Directors of Tatneft recommended paying final dividends for 2021 in the amount of 22.24 rubles per share (51.7 billion rubles), but taking into account the dividends already paid in September 2020 for the first half of 2021 in the amount of 9.94 rubles per share (RUB 23.122 billion), the total dividends for 2021 received in July 2021 amount to 12.3 rubles per share (RUB 28.6 billion).

Tatneft has been pampering investors with generous dividend payments for a long time, attracting investors with a dividend strategy. So, by the beginning of 2021, Tatneft managed to pay 150 billion rubles only in interim dividends for 6 and 9 months of 2021. with the total net profit for the year amounting to 192.3 billion. rub. But with the onset of the apocalypse in 2021, management wisely decided not to waste money and not pay final dividends for 2021 (although resources were available). But here the logic of management can be understood.

During the difficult 2021, the company was able to make a profit of 104.6 billion rubles. Although this figure is half as much as the profit for 2019, compared to many other oil companies that declared a loss, the very presence of profit for such a difficult year is already an excellent achievement!!! And most importantly, there is a basis, and a good one, for dividend payments. In addition, oil prices in the first half of 2021 recovered to the pre-crisis levels of 2021, which means, without going into details, we can expect Tatneft’s profit for 2021, if not at the level of 2021, then not much lower than these values. Against such a cloudless background, it seems that nothing prevents us from distributing most of the profits for 2021 to dividends, given that everyone did not pay final dividends for 2021.

And on April 28, 2021, investors will learn that having a profit of 104.6 billion rubles for 2021. and good prospects for 2021, the total payment of dividends for 2021 will be only 51.7 billion rubles. (that is, according to the lowest level of the company’s dividend policy, which the company itself had not previously adhered to).

What happened? Have the controlling shareholders of Tatneft suddenly increased their level of greed?

Considering that dividends from Tatneft feed the budget of Tatarstan, this is unlikely. I can assume that due to the abolition of tax benefits for the production/processing of ultra-viscous oil, Tatneft’s fat years are basically over.

I found some material on this issue here: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4793102

Small excerpts from the article:

— according to the OPEC+ agreement, the company in the first half of 2020 reduced oil production by 10.6%, to 13.3 million tons

— the investment program approved in 2021 envisaged an increase in oil production to 38 million tons per year through investments of more than 1.16 trillion rubles. However, speaking at a session of the national oil and gas forum, Deputy General Director of Tatneft Azat Yagafarov explained that due to the abolition of benefits for the company, the overall decrease in investments over 10 years will amount to 225 billion rubles. This will lead to a reduction in oil production by 98 million tons, and Tatneft’s total tax payments will decrease by approximately 1 trillion rubles.

— the company plans the largest reduction in investments in 2022–2025 — approximately 40 billion rubles each. in year. Production will fall from 3 million to 9.3 million tons per year.

— on the sidelines of the forum, Azat Yagafarov told the publication that because of how vertically integrated.

So perhaps Tatneft shares are not just so far from their 2021 levels, while prices for oil itself have long since recovered to pre-Covid levels.

It turns out that the future of the company is not at all cloudless at the moment and the company itself will now need free money to maintain and develop its divisions (in the field of petrochemicals, energy, etc.). Moreover, the market may even underestimate the risks associated with an increase in the tax burden. This can be indirectly judged by management’s words about the significant impact on the company’s previously approved development strategy. It is possible that the strategy will have to be revised - and this will definitely not support stock prices at the moment!!! Against this background, it becomes clear not only the actions of management in terms of cutting dividend payments, but also the seemingly excessive reaction of the market - on April 28, 2021, shares were immediately sold off so fiercely and mercilessly that from 533 rubles. went to 486 rubles, closing by the end of the trading session at the level of 496 rubles. (more than 7% drop in a day!!!) By the way, at the moment when I am writing this (15.00 hours on April 29, 2021), the shares continue to fall furiously by more than 5% since the opening of trading: in just an hour the price went from 496 rubles. reduced to 461 rubles!!!

Considering that Tatneft shares have not recovered from the fall of 2021, and are now brutally falling to the floor, it is appropriate to ask how much the shares are now undervalued.

Let's try to think about it.

For profit for 2021 (104.6 billion rubles), the p/e indicator is 11.7 (with the average p/e indicator for Tataneft over the past ten years ranging from 5 to 8). At the same time, we keep in mind the dividend yield for 2021 in the amount of 4.8% per annum dirty (with personal income tax), and minus personal income tax - 4.2%. That is, right now, in terms of earnings for 2021 and dividend yield, the shares look expensive, not cheap. Perhaps the market was banking on an increase in net profit for 2021 against the backdrop of rising oil prices; perhaps the market believed that the government would reconsider the issue of canceling tax breaks in favor of the company. And for this reason, at the moment, shares look expensive - the market is already pricing them at forward values ​​for 2021. But as we have already found out, the company’s future performance is in question.

As an investor, it is more comfortable for me to sit out difficult years in business, when I can take back from this business, although much less, but still enough for the money previously invested. Therefore, for those who bought Tatneft shares in the period 2010-2015 in the range of 100-200 rubles. payments even of 22.24 rubles. give a yield of 11-22% per annum. With that kind of support, you can sit back and hope for the best.

I formed a position on Tatneft in the period from September 2020 to January 2021 and received an average of 445 rubles. per share. Div. the yield for 2021 at my price is 4.9% dirty (without deduction of personal income tax). Frankly speaking, not a lot. More precisely, this is complete bullshit, since dividend payments are not only much lower than inflation, but also lower than div. profitability for the market as a whole and even lower than the conservative yield for OFZ. I understand that all oil/gas companies have had a difficult year. But for example, NOVATEK, also pays a lot of dividends and a little - but there is a growing business with huge prospects and I understand the need to sit in a growing business without a return on capital in the form of dividends. Why suffer at Tatneft, exhausting yourself with permanent hope for a bright future, which the company apparently does not have? Tatneft is essentially a dividend cow, for this it was loved, valued for this, and for this reason it was included in portfolios. Apparently yesterday investors had the first stage of realizing that the cow is now sick. If at the end of 2021 the profit is 150 billion, and 60-70 billion rubles are paid in dividends, a complete and final sobering up will occur and quotes may drop below 400 rubles.

What am I leading to?

If I had bought Tatka on the current market, these thoughts obviously wouldn’t have happened. On the contrary, I would focus on the fact that historically Tatneft has always been highly profitable (which is partially confirmed by the profit for 2021 instead of losses from other oil companies), I would pay attention to the absence of debt and the growth of net assets year on year, to the strong lobby represented by the government Tatarstan and a possible revision of the tax issue, on a wise and balanced management policy (they say in a difficult year you can tighten your belts - then everything will be rewarded), on a historical commitment to a policy of generous dividends, on a possibly higher amount of net profit at the end of 2021 and a clearly higher amazing profitability.

And I certainly would have paid attention to all this and even developed it point by point if I had not previously managed to acquire Tatneft shares, but would have bought them out of greed at yesterday’s/today’s sale, as many other comrades greedy for freebies did. But, knowing myself, I can assume that with a high degree of probability I would have bought Tatneft shares yesterday purely on reflex, following a simple principle: prices have collapsed - grab it quickly before it grows back. And then, in order to convince myself of the correctness of my actions, I would paint everything in rainbow colors.

But the problem was precisely that I already had a small position of 440 shares and was faced with a choice - silently wait for the price to drop perhaps even below my average and then stupidly average or still exit the position with a plus and look at everything from a sides.

First scenario.

Shares are rolling up to 400 rubles. and below. I am starting to average out, while increasing in my portfolio the share of not only the oil industry, but specifically one company, which I will eventually have much more than Lukoil, Gazpromneft, Novatek. Consequently, the proportions in my portfolio will be distorted, as well as the risk associated with a particular issuer will be increased. Then I will worry, pay increased attention to this issuer, evaluate my actions in anticipation of when I will finally get into the black and start receiving acceptable dividends.

Second scenario.

I will close the entire position on Tatneft and record a net (minus personal income tax) profit of 8.7% (in money terms this is 19,702 rubles), which, in terms of the six months spent “sitting” in the position, is about 16% per annum. Then, if the price reaches the level of 400 rubles. or even lower - I can think about whether to enter the position again or not. Most likely for 400 rubles. I will definitely buy it back, since the difference between the sale price and the buyback price will be sufficient to compensate for the meager dividends for 2021, and for 2021 I still hope for more generous payments. But there is a risk that the price will not reach 400 rubles. or for some reason I will decide not to buy back Tatneft again, but will use this money for other instruments. What am I risking? Remain without Tatneft. It's not very pleasant, but not fatal. I now have almost no Gazprom, so there is an opportunity to increase my position on it. For 2021, Gazprom's divas are slightly larger than Tatka's, and for 2021 they will most likely even be double-digit. That is, by and large, the risk of losing a position in Tatneft is clearly not fatal.

Therefore, reluctantly, yesterday I sold all my 440 pieces at a price of 488 rubles. It’s worth saying that I had 500 pieces in total, since I like even numbers, but I sold 60 of them earlier for 508 rubles, since I didn’t have enough for something and I split off a piece from Tatka, as it turns out it was not in vain: )))

That's all for this.

As usual, I wish everyone Good Luck, Wealth and Goodness!!!

I will be glad if you come to my channel on Yandex Zen: In medias res, I post some of the articles only there.

zen.yandex.ru/id/5e4933847a7c6668dd0e78b4

Activating the Tatneft gas station card - instructions

Once you have your new discount card, you need to enter your data into the bonus program database. This will allow you to link the discount to the owner’s phone number and receive personal privileges.

To do this, you need to activate the Champions Club loyalty card from the Tatneft gas station and Zenit Bank, and also register in your personal account on the official website club.tatneft.ru. Thus, to get into the database, you need to go through two stages.

Activation stage

At this step, you will need a cashier's receipt received after the first purchase using the card, and a mobile phone. To activate the Champions Club card, send an SMS with the eight-digit code indicated on the receipt before the cash register data to the number (Tatneft PJSC telephone number for registering discounts).

In a response SMS, the organizers of the loyalty program will notify you that the phone number has been successfully linked to the card and will send you the password from the Club member’s personal account. This will allow you to move on to the next step.

Registration stage

To register a card from Zenit Bank and Tatneft Champions Club gas station, go to the official website of the program at club.tatneft.ru and click the “Personal Account” button. Enter your login (17-digit number under the TATNEFT LOYALTY line on the discount), enter the password received at the previous stage, click “Login”, fill out the registration form.

You can also register a card through the Tatneft - Champions Club application. Download the program from the official stores for Android and iPhone.

Download from Play Store

Download from App Store

After opening the application, log in following the prompts.

Now you can proceed to the active use of the Tatneft virtual club card by presenting the electronic barcode from the phone screen.

Attention! If the card is not registered or you have lost the receipt, and without it activation is impossible, call the customer support center of the Tatneft gas station network 8 800 5555 9 11.

Read about what promotional code you are asked to enter when registering a Champions Club card and where to get it in the comments under this article.

About the card and bonus program Champions Club

The Champions Club loyalty card from the Tatneft gas station chain is a plastic prepaid card for individuals, issued jointly with Zenit Bank. As the partners note, thanks to the cumulative discount functionality, refueling a car at a Tatneft gas station becomes cheaper.

How it works in general:

1. Receive and activate your bonus card.
2. Top up with cash (optional).
3. Pay anywhere, including gas stations.
4. You receive bonuses in the amount of a certain percentage of the purchase price.
5. Exchange points for a discount at Tatneft gas stations.

We described the activation procedure above. Where can I get a card? Do I need to pay for this? Why is it not necessary to top up the card? How to save and write off bonuses? Is it profitable to pay with them? How much will the service cost? Calmly! Now we will answer these questions in detail.

If you want to figure it out yourself, read the full rules of the loyalty program at the link azs.tatneft.ru/club/program_rules.

Terms of Service

Servicing the Tatneft gas station Champions Club card is free, but Zenit Bank imposes some conditions.

Detailed information about tariffs can be obtained on the bank’s website at zenit.ru/personal/cards/champions-club.

Getting a card - how much does it cost?

Individuals can buy a club card at Tatneft gas stations for 199 rubles . However, the organizers of the loyalty program regularly review the conditions, and sometimes you can get a Champions Club card for free. Therefore, check with the gas station network operator how much it costs.

After registration, the online card is waiting for you in the club application; you just need to go through activation and registration.

Blocking and recovery

If you have lost your card or it has stopped working, call the hotline of the Tatneft gas station network 8 800 5555 9 11 to block the functionality. What to do next:

1. Get a new card.
2. Activate and register it as required.
3. Log in to your personal account on the website club.tatneft.ru or in the club application.
4. Merge cards using the appropriate option. In this case, discounts will be replaced, bonus balance will be restored and purchase history will be transferred.

If you did not have time to create a personal account, write to [email protected] Explain the situation, indicate your phone number, full name. A support specialist will transfer the bonuses to a new card within three days.

Checking bonus and ruble balance

There is no personal account for the Tatneft gas station Champions Club card on the Zenit Bank website. To check the number of accumulated points, use the following methods:

• Log in to your bonus program participant’s personal account on the website club.tatneft.ru;
• log in to the Champions Club mobile application;
• contact the Tatneft hotline by phone 8 800 5555 9 11;
• read the information on the cash receipt.

If you have activated the banking functionality and want to know your balance in rubles, request a statement at a Zenit ATM or by calling the bank’s customer center.

Cash withdrawal points of other financial institutions charge a commission of 30 rubles for this service.

Topping up your card - why is it optional?

Bonuses will be received on the Champions Club card without topping it up with cash. You can pay in cash or use a card from another bank. In this case, bonus points will be awarded only for payments at Tatneft gas stations.

By topping up the champion discount and paying with it, you receive:

• additional bonuses at Tatneft gas stations - 1.5%,
• cashback in other stores - 1%;
• access to the cashback service Cashbackforce;
• the ability to connect the card to Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, Google Pay.

If you don’t want to lose bonuses from Zenit Bank, top up your loyalty card balance with up to 15 thousand rubles:

• through ATMs of Zenit, Alfa Bank or MKB;
• through terminals of the Elexnet instant payment network;
• using the transfer service on the bank’s website card2card.zenit.ru (no commission is charged).

Accrual of bonuses from Tatneft

Tatneft awards the first welcome bonuses for registration. Gas station operators then take into account the Champions Club membership card status. When paying for fuel and related products at a gas station, show the cashier your champion discount or electronic barcode. As a result of the scan, the system determines how much you spent in the previous month and awards the corresponding number of points.

* at the Tatneft gas station.

As you can see, in order to move to the platinum level and stay there, you need to spend more than 15,000 thousand rubles at the gas station every month.

All new members are assigned gold status, which is valid for two months. After this period, the activity level is reviewed and reduced to silver if the above conditions are not met. The KNP gas station bonus program is based on the same conditions.

An example of bonus accumulation when replenishing a card.

The validity period of payment units is one year. If they have not been written off all this time, the balance is reset to zero.

When Tatneft points are not awarded

Champion bonuses are not awarded if the owner of the club card has accumulated 40,000 units of account, as well as:

• paid for fuel through a self-service terminal or the Yandex.Refueling, Yandex.Navigator applications;
• purchased tobacco products;
• exceeded the limit on the amount of purchase of related products - 2000 rubles. per day, 5000 rub. per week, 20,000 rub. per month;
• Already bought 750 liters of fuel this month (diesel - 3000 liters);
• makes more than three transactions per day at Tatneft gas stations.

Exchange bonuses for a discount - how much is it in rubles?

Bonuses from Tatneft and Zenit Bank can only be spent on purchasing fuel and related products at the network’s gas stations. Before paying, show the cashier your Champions Club card and receive a 99% discount with points. Or less if there are not enough units of account. One bonus is equal to one ruble.

Example. Having accumulated 1000 points, you decided to use them to pay for refueling your car. Let's say you fill up 20 liters of gasoline for 860 rubles, then a maximum of 851.40 can be replaced with bonuses.