EURO RATE FORECAST FOR A MONTH, 2021, 2022 - 2026

Knowing what will happen to the euro in 2021, according to experts, is important for those whose activities or interests depend on exchange rates. For businessmen, the euro exchange rate plays a role in determining the situation on the domestic market. Holders of deposits in this currency are constantly aware of changes in indices. By tracking the dynamics of the euro exchange rate, it is possible to predict the rise in prices for goods.

Euro exchange rate forecast

What will happen to the euro in 2021 can be guessed based on expert opinions and tracking price changes. Analysts have no consensus on the long-term outlook. It is easier to predict exchange rate changes in the near future. If we consider the behavior of the European currency since the beginning of the year, we can notice the same trends. At the beginning of each month, the euro exchange rate falls for a day or two, in the middle of the month it rises, and by the end of the month it decreases slightly again.

Fluctuations in the euro exchange rate from January to April were characterized by minor spikes in the middle of the month. But there were no significant increases or decreases in the exchange rate. Experts’ forecasts at the end of last year for the beginning of 2021 stated that the euro would rise to 145 rubles, but this did not happen. Now again the same option: the predicted price of the euro at the end of the year (by December) should rise to approximately the same values. This is unlikely to happen.

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Increase in the cost of the euro to 100 rubles. per unit is possible due to objective reasons. The European currency does not have enough strength to maintain a further lead due to global problems and specifically among European countries.

Root causes determining currency indicators

When forecasting the euro exchange rate for 2021, analysts assess changes in economic indicators, which can be divided into two groups:

• predictable;
• unpredictable.

Forecasts include:

• credit policy of foreign countries;
• degree of inflation and GDP;
• stability of the political system of various countries;
• energy tariff;
• sanctions against the Russian Federation.

Unpredictable factors are also called sudden. These are natural disasters, catastrophes, and military actions.

Will the euro rise in the near future?

The euro exchange rate is characterized by constant slight growth. It just so happened historically that the ruble, as a developing currency, will never catch up with the value of the world currency. The ruble, even strengthening at times, will lag significantly behind the price of the euro.

The forecast rate for May 2021 indicates changes in dynamics within -0.6%. At the end of April, the cost of the euro was 90 rubles. By the beginning of May, the projected cost is 89 rubles. By the end of the month, the minimum level is expected to be 90, the maximum - 94 rubles. In the middle of the month the rate will decrease minimally to 87.4.

On a note! Euro exchange rate in July 2021 by day

In June 2021, the euro exchange rate will fluctuate between 86-89 rubles. for a unit. Changes for the month will be -1.5%. In July, the price of the euro will gradually rise and fall with varying degrees of success. The dynamics of changes will be -2.9%. The cost of the euro will not rise above 86 rubles. August will bring exchange rate fluctuations of -1.4%. The value of the European currency will not exceed 87.4.

From September to October, dynamic fluctuations in the euro exchange rate are predicted. The values ​​will not exceed 86.88. An appreciation of the euro can be expected by the end of December. The euro exchange rate will not exceed 89 rubles. But theoretically, any changes can be expected.

Financial analysts' opinion

Financial analysts have expressed varying views on what lies ahead for the euro. However, all experts agree that by the end of 2021 the euro will rise in price.

Euro exchange rate forecast from the Central Bank

Financial experts at the Central Bank predict instability in the EUR/RUB pair. This is due to instability in the global political situation. If relations between Russia and the European Union deteriorate, the price of the euro could exceed 90 rubles.

We are seeing some of this in the first quarter of 2021. The ruble either strengthens at auction or falls. The depreciation of the ruble and the rise of the euro at the end of the 1st quarter of 2021 is associated with the end of the tax period, as well as with the strengthening of the unstable external background.

Opinion of the Ministry of Economic Development

The opinion of experts from the Ministry of Economic Development is somewhat different from the opinion of the Central Bank. When considering whether the euro will rise in price, the ministry also predicts an increase in the exchange rate, but more gradually. This will be facilitated by improved relations between the United States and Russia and a relatively stable situation in Europe.

Monthly euro exchange rate forecast from Sberbank experts

Sberbank specialists provide monthly exchange rate forecasts.

Here's the latest forecast.

According to Sberbank experts, the euro exchange rate will fluctuate throughout 2021. An increase in the exchange rate is predicted in the summer, a slight drop in August-September, and an increase again by the end of the year. However, no sharp jumps are expected. At the end of the year, the projected euro exchange rate will slightly exceed 73 rubles per 1 euro.

Forecasts of foreign experts

When asked whether the euro will rise, foreign experts answer unequivocally: the euro will rise. However, a sharper jump in the exchange rate is predicted by the end of the year.

Foreign experts from Walletinvestor made their forecast using technical analysis of currency pairs on Forex.

What will happen to the euro in 2021

Russian experts talk about the depreciation of the euro against the ruble throughout the year. The economic crisis, problems with the third wave of the pandemic - everything affects the dynamics of currency changes. But the eurozone is a whole series of countries. Their problems are not always common. As soon as the economy of one or two countries improves, the euro will creep up again.

The deterioration of economic indicators in countries such as Greece, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus causes currency drawdown. The opening of borders in the summer of 2021 and the resumption of direct flights will have a positive effect on the euro exchange rate. And then a sharp jump is possible. The ruble is diligently strengthening against the European currency, but objective reasons are preventing it from reaching any maximum and gaining a foothold.

Sanctions against Russia have not been lifted. Tightening economic measures could happen at any time. The internal policy of our state is aimed at a constant cash flow in the form of American and European currencies. And this will never allow the ruble to grow significantly. Knowledge of the political situation will help you navigate the foreign exchange market and predict changes in the euro exchange rate.

You can make money on changes in exchange rates if you wait for the maximum price drop and sell when it rises. Experts advise keeping your savings partly in dollars and partly in euros. 33% - dollars, 33% - euros and 33% - rubles. This ratio will protect the deposit as capital preservation. Instead of rubles, you can buy pounds sterling, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc.

Expert forecasts

The Internet is filled with different opinions regarding the movement of the EUR next year. Some argue that the euro will peak in January 2022, while others predict a long-term upward trend. But everyone is inclined to believe that in 2022 the currency will have high volatility. After a sharp increase in quotes, the EUR will return to balance in relation to other currencies within six months.

The influence of external and internal factors on the euro

First of all, changes in the value of the euro are affected by changes in the Central Bank interest rate. A sharp increase will directly affect the European currency index. She will grow up too.

The introduction or termination of economic stimulus measures also affects the dynamics of the euro. If economic sanctions against Russia are eased, the ruble strengthens and the euro falls.

The rise of the European economy weakens the ruble, but strengthens the euro. The EU currency is also strengthening with a decrease in unemployment, an increase in business activity, and growth in GDP and industrial production.

Statements by the management of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation or the European Central Bank also affect the relationship between the ruble and the euro. Negative attacks on another country significantly increase the value of the domestic currency.

Results

Analysts and experts predict what will happen to the euro in 2021. Whatever forecasts are made, it is important to understand that the euro is below 80 rubles. will not fall, but at the same time it is unlikely to rise to 150 rubles. A gradual decline and increase in the euro exchange rate is predicted. This will allow you to make adjustments to your business and plans.

Dynamics over the past 10 years

Another indicator used in the analysis is the price fluctuation by € over the past few years.

The highest euro exchange rate was recorded in 2021, and the lowest in 2010. The 10-year average is 53.357 ք, which is 33% less than the 2021 price.

Government measures to stabilize the financial situation

Sharp jumps in foreign currency quotes on the financial market are much worse than a simple weakening ք. The government is taking active measures to stabilize the euro in 2021. Planning is for 3 years:

• gradual reduction of budget expenditures;
• increase in taxation for enterprises from January 1, 2019;
• increasing foreign exchange reserves;
• reduction in the level of consumption of foreign goods.

The Central Bank has all the levers to correct the prospect of a decline in the euro. He can act according to one of two strategies:

• weak;
• strong.

If the Central Bank chooses a weak policy, then this leads to the collapse of the ruble. With this strategy, the volume of sales of eurocurrency increases, the money supply contracts and the growth of the national economy is suppressed.

With strong politics, the opposite happens:

• the money supply increases;
• the economy is stimulated;
• The national currency is strengthening.

Time will tell what position the Central Bank will choose.

What should the population do?

Citizens are concerned about changes in foreign currency rates, as this leads to higher prices for consumed goods. To save your savings and stay afloat, experts advise following a number of rules.

Mortgage

When choosing a lending program, the main role is played by the rate, and for loans in foreign currency it is lower than for ruble loans. But rising rates make such a mortgage unaffordable to pay off. Therefore, citizens are recommended to resort to refinancing and convert the loan into national currency.

How to save savings

People who have available funds are concerned about how to protect them from inflation. This can be done if you don’t let the money just lie there, but invest it in something:

• real estate;
• bank deposit;
• purchase of precious metals;
• purchasing foreign currency.

The latter method seems less effective, since if citizens begin to actively buy €, then its value will begin to rise sharply, and after a decline in demand, it will fall.

Government Scenario

To plan the budget, officials make their own forecasts for changes in euro quotations. Three scenarios are being developed on which foreign and domestic policies depend:

• positive - it assumes the lifting of sanctions and improvement of the economic situation in the state, the exchange rate will decrease to the level of 62 ք;
• neutral – if all factors are maintained, then the cost € will remain at the same level;
• negative - falling oil prices and tightening sanctions will lead to an increase in the euro currency, and it will reach 100-120 ք.

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A sharp increase in the value of the € will inevitably lead to a financial crisis in the Russian economy.

Foreign experts

Foreign analysts have other hopes for the euro exchange rate. They say that € will rise to 100-120 ք. The rationale for the forecast is the following:

• sanctions restrictions;
• lack of own funds in the Russian budget;
• development of new oil fields in the USA;
• changes in rates by the EU Central Bank;
• inflation in the European Union countries.

At the same time, the Morgan & Stanley credit agency believes that the euro will only grow to 80 ք.