USD/TRY is a quote indicating the Forex exchange rate of the Turkish lira to the US dollar. Refers to exotic pairs with a relatively small turnover on the foreign exchange market. USD/TRY has high volatility: during the European trading session, rate fluctuations can exceed 700 points. Thanks to this feature, the pair is popular among traders who use short-term strategies.
The Turkish lira is an unstable currency. Most of the changes in the USD/TRY pair rate are caused by its fluctuations. The dollar is one of the main currencies of the world market, but its influence on the dynamics of the quote is limited to major economic events.
In the USD/TRY combination, the dollar is the base currency and the lira is the quote currency. This means that by investing in a pair, a trader buys American currency while simultaneously selling Turkish currency. Outside of Forex trading platforms, most lira transactions occur in the tourism sector of the Turkish economy.
Calculator-converter
You can find out how much 1 dollar is worth in lira now, or check the reverse exchange rate using a currency converter. The same online service makes it possible to get acquainted with the current exchange rates of the euro and ruble in relation to TRY. The commercial exchange rate of the Turkish lira to the dollar today may differ significantly from the official data of the Central Bank. Most often this can be encountered at cash exchange points associated with tourism. In Turkey, it is more profitable to exchange dollars than rubles. Therefore, most foreign tourists prefer to take American currency with them. A significant volume of conversions is made by tourists from Russia and CIS countries.
Attention! Foreign currency is accepted for payment in shops and restaurants, but at an unfavorable rate for tourists. Therefore, it is recommended to convert dollars into Turkish lira at official exchange offices in order to use them for cash payments.
To calculate how much money you will need to take with you on a trip, you can use the converter as a calculator. To do this, you need to select a currency and enter the required amount. The translation will be done automatically.
Dollar exchange rate in Turkey
The ratio of the bi-currency basket is influenced by many factors, including the general decline of the world economy, the level of industrial development of Turkey with a disproportionate population growth index.
However, the Turkish coin is relatively stable, which attracts currency traders who prefer to balance trades with exotic currency pairs like USD/TRY. The position of the lira is ensured by the sovereignty of the Turkish state, its economic condition and involvement in the international market.
Analytics
The specific dynamics of the USD/TRY pair is explained by the relationship of factors influencing the exchange rate of the Turkish currency. In fundamental analysis, you should consider the dollar and the lira separately.
Factors influencing the US dollar
On the part of the American currency, USD/TRY is affected by:
- US economic indicators: Federal Reserve rate, GDP, budget deficit, unemployment rate, inflation, business activity index. These data and associated market expectations are published in the economic calendar. US macroeconomic indicators are considered the most important for dollar currency pairs.
- Oil rate. The cost of energy resources is calculated in USD. Rising world oil prices cause the dollar to depreciate.
- Political events in the United States. State elections or scandals involving major politicians trigger a response in the currency markets. Moreover, if planned events are taken into account when making forecasts, then the reaction of trading participants to unexpected news may be unpredictable.
- US foreign policy. Military operations and important changes in relations with other countries affect the exchange rate of the American currency and all related quotes. This effect can be seen by comparing the dates of loud statements by politicians with the dynamics of the USD.
To assess the impact of the dollar on the USD/TRY pair, it is necessary to monitor the economic calendar and take into account US political actions.
You might be interested in analyzing the Chinese Yuan – US Dollar pair.
Turkish Lira Analysis
Turkey's economy is growing rapidly, but its national currency remains unstable. This situation is influenced by the following factors:
- GDP and inflation indicators. These are the main criteria for assessing the current state of the Turkish economy. At the same time, GDP depends on three main sectors: tourism, industry, and agriculture.
- Changes in the Central Bank rate. Using this indicator, the state stimulates the economy. A change in the discount rate is always reflected in the exchange rate of the national currency.
- Turkey's agriculture supplies fruits, vegetables, and grains to foreign markets. The profitability of this sector depends on the yield of export crops. A crop failure could have a significant impact on the dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate if the country is forced to import wheat rather than sell it.
- Industry - supplier of textiles, ready-made clothing, and other consumer goods for export. This sector provides a third of GDP. Competition with Chinese manufacturers has reduced the popularity of Turkish products in foreign markets. This negatively affected entrepreneurship, government revenues from industrial production and the lira exchange rate.
- Tourism and related service sector. It is a vital part of Turkey's economy. The service sector accounts for more than half of annual GDP, and tourism plays a major role in it. Every season, Turkey is visited by millions of people from Russia, CIS countries, and the European Union. This gives an influx of money and has a positive effect on the balance of payments. Tourists bring in foreign currency and exchange it for local money, which strengthens the Turkish lira's exchange rate against the dollar. But this sector depends on the political situation in the state: aggravation of internal conflicts, threats of terrorist attacks reduce the number of people wishing to visit Turkey. The economic situation in the countries from which most tourists come is also important for this sector. During crises, the flow of people to resorts decreases, foreign exchange earnings decrease, and the lira weakens.
- The state of the Turkish real estate market. Property in Turkey is in demand not only among citizens of the country, but also among foreign investors. When real estate prices start to rise, this is favorable for the lira exchange rate. At the same time, the USD/TRY quote decreases.
- The economy of Turkey's main foreign trade partners - Russia and the European Union. The volumes of exports of agricultural products and consumer goods depend on the current exchange rates of the ruble or euro and the purchasing power of the population. The deterioration of the economic situation in the Russian Federation and the EU is reflected by a decrease in Turkey's export revenues and a decrease in money turnover, which leads to a weakening of the national currency.
Based on the analysis of fundamental factors, it is possible to predict at the USD/TRY rate a continuation of the upward trend with periodic transitions to a sideways trend. Short-term fluctuations in quotes are chaotic, unpredictable and difficult to analyze using indicators. For inexperienced traders, USD/TRY is a risky instrument. Professional scalpers can benefit from the high volatility of this currency pair.
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Long-term Turkish Lira exchange rate forecast for 2021, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025.
| Month | Open | Min-Max | Closing rate (forecast) | Months,% | Total,% |
| 2021 | |||||
| May | 87.24 | 87.00 — 87.48 | ▲ 87.48 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.55% |
| June | 87.48 | 87.11 — 87.85 | ▼ 87.11 -0.15% | -0.15% | 0.84% |
| July | 87.11 | 85.56 — 88.66 | ▼ 85.56 -1.97% | -1.97% | 3.50% |
| August | 85.56 | 83.70 — 87.42 | ▲ 87.42 0.20% | 0.20% | 4.26% |
| September | 87.42 | 86.65 — 88.19 | ▲ 88.19 1.08% | 1.08% | 1.75% |
| October | 88.19 | 85.94 — 90.44 | ▼ 85.94 -1.51% | -1.51% | 4.98% |
| november | 85.94 | 85.28 — 86.60 | ▼ 86.60 -0.74% | -0.74% | 1.52% |
| December | 86.60 | 86.44 — 86.76 | ▼ 86.76 -0.56% | -0.56% | 0.37% |
| 2022 | |||||
| January | 86.76 | 86.48 — 87.04 | ▼ 86.48 -0.88% | -0.88% | 0.64% |
| February | 86.48 | 86.33 — 86.63 | ▼ 86.63 -0.71% | -0.71% | 0.35% |
| March | 86.63 | 86.02 — 87.24 | ▼ 86.02 -1.42% | -1.42% | 1.40% |
| April | 86.02 | 85.65 — 86.39 | ▼ 86.39 -0.99% | -0.99% | 0.86% |
| May | 86.39 | 84.16 — 88.62 | ▲ 88.62 1.56% | 1.56% | 5.03% |
| June | 88.62 | 86.04 — 91.20 | ▼ 86.04 -1.40% | -1.40% | 5.66% |
| July | 86.04 | 85.65 — 86.43 | ▼ 85.65 -1.86% | -1.86% | 0.90% |
| August | 85.65 | 84.24 — 87.06 | ▼ 87.06 -0.21% | -0.21% | 3.24% |
| September | 87.06 | 86.77 — 87.35 | ▲ 87.35 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.66% |
| October | 87.35 | 86.75 — 87.95 | ▲ 87.95 0.81% | 0.81% | 1.36% |
| november | 87.95 | 87.78 — 88.12 | ▲ 87.78 0.61% | 0.61% | 0.39% |
| December | 87.78 | 86.51 — 89.05 | ▼ 86.51 -0.85% | -0.85% | 2.85% |
| 2023 | |||||
| January | 86.51 | 85.96 — 87.06 | ▼ 85.96 -1.49% | -1.49% | 1.26% |
| February | 85.96 | 85.81 — 86.11 | ▼ 86.11 -1.31% | -1.31% | 0.35% |
| March | 86.11 | 84.29 — 87.93 | ▲ 87.93 0.78% | 0.78% | 4.14% |
| April | 87.93 | 87.44 — 88.42 | ▲ 87.44 0.23% | 0.23% | 1.11% |
| May | 87.44 | 86.65 — 88.23 | ▲ 88.23 1.12% | 1.12% | 1.79% |
| June | 88.23 | 88.20 — 88.26 | ▲ 88.20 1.09% | 1.09% | 0.07% |
| July | 88.20 | 87.76 — 88.64 | ▲ 87.76 0.59% | 0.59% | 0.99% |
| August | 87.76 | 85.63 — 89.89 | ▼ 85.63 -1.88% | -1.88% | 4.74% |
| September | 85.63 | 85.50 — 85.76 | ▼ 85.50 -2.04% | -2.04% | 0.30% |
| October | 85.50 | 82.65 — 88.35 | ▲ 88.35 1.25% | 1.25% | 6.45% |
| november | 88.35 | 86.55 — 90.15 | ▼ 86.55 -0.80% | -0.80% | 3.99% |
| December | 86.55 | 85.52 — 87.58 | ▲ 87.58 0.39% | 0.39% | 2.35% |
| 2024 | |||||
| January | 87.58 | 86.72 — 88.44 | ▲ 88.44 1.36% | 1.36% | 1.94% |
| February | 88.44 | 88.35 — 88.53 | ▲ 88.35 1.25% | 1.25% | 0.20% |
| March | 88.35 | 87.73 — 88.97 | ▲ 88.97 1.94% | 1.94% | 1.39% |
| April | 88.97 | 87.85 — 90.09 | ▲ 87.85 0.69% | 0.69% | 2.49% |
| May | 87.85 | 85.98 — 89.72 | ▼ 85.98 -1.47% | -1.47% | 4.17% |
| June | 85.98 | 84.66 — 87.30 | ▲ 87.30 0.07% | 0.07% | 3.02% |
| July | 87.30 | 85.65 — 88.95 | ▼ 85.65 -1.86% | -1.86% | 3.71% |
| August | 85.65 | 83.90 — 87.40 | ▲ 87.40 0.18% | 0.18% | 4.00% |
| September | 87.40 | 87.02 — 87.78 | ▼ 87.02 -0.25% | -0.25% | 0.87% |
| October | 87.02 | 85.26 — 88.78 | ▲ 88.78 1.73% | 1.73% | 3.96% |
| november | 88.78 | 86.49 — 91.07 | ▼ 86.49 -0.87% | -0.87% | 5.03% |
| December | 86.49 | 85.98 — 87.00 | ▼ 87.00 -0.28% | -0.28% | 1.17% |
| 2025 | |||||
| January | 87.00 | 86.24 — 87.76 | ▼ 86.24 -1.16% | -1.16% | 1.73% |
| February | 86.24 | 85.55 — 86.93 | ▼ 86.93 -0.36% | -0.36% | 1.59% |
| March | 86.93 | 86.03 — 87.83 | ▲ 87.83 0.67% | 0.67% | 2.05% |
| April | 87.83 | 87.07 — 88.59 | ▲ 88.59 1.52% | 1.52% | 1.72% |
| May | 88.59 | 88.27 — 88.91 | ▲ 88.27 1.17% | 1.17% | 0.72% |
| June | 88.27 | 87.28 — 89.26 | ▲ 87.28 0.04% | 0.04% | 2.22% |
| July | 87.28 | 86.96 — 87.60 | ▲ 87.60 0.41% | 0.41% | 0.73% |
| August | 87.60 | 86.73 — 88.47 | ▲ 88.47 1.39% | 1.39% | 1.97% |
| September | 88.47 | 87.92 — 89.02 | ▲ 87.92 0.77% | 0.77% | 1.24% |
| October | 87.92 | 87.14 — 88.70 | ▲ 88.70 1.64% | 1.64% | 1.76% |
| november | 88.70 | 85.68 — 91.72 | ▼ 85.68 -1.82% | -1.82% | 6.59% |
| December | 85.68 | 85.58 — 85.78 | ▼ 85.78 -1.70% | -1.70% | 0.23% |
| 2026 | |||||
| January | 85.78 | 83.51 — 88.05 | ▲ 88.05 0.92% | 0.92% | 5.16% |
| February | 88.05 | 87.85 — 88.25 | ▲ 87.85 0.69% | 0.69% | 0.45% |
| March | 87.85 | 86.92 — 88.78 | ▲ 88.78 1.73% | 1.73% | 2.10% |
| April | 88.78 | 87.10 — 90.46 | ▼ 87.10 -0.16% | -0.16% | 3.71% |
| May | 87.10 | 87.06 — 87.14 | ▼ 87.14 -0.12% | -0.12% | 0.09% |
| June | 87.14 | 86.85 — 87.43 | ▲ 87.43 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.66% |
| July | 87.43 | 87.42 — 87.44 | ▲ 87.42 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.02% |
| August | 87.42 | 86.63 — 88.21 | ▼ 86.63 -0.71% | -0.71% | 1.79% |
| September | 86.63 | 86.09 — 87.17 | ▼ 86.09 -1.34% | -1.34% | 1.24% |
| October | 86.09 | 84.54 — 87.64 | ▲ 87.64 0.45% | 0.45% | 3.54% |
| november | 87.64 | 86.10 — 89.18 | ▼ 86.10 -1.33% | -1.33% | 3.45% |
| December | 86.10 | 86.03 — 86.17 | ▼ 86.17 -1.24% | -1.24% | 0.16% |
Wiki Masterforex-V about the Russian economy and its exchange rate
- Russian economy - Russian exports, Russian imports, Russian GDP, Russian state budget, inflation in Russia, Russian external debt, Russian foreign exchange reserves, unemployment rate in Russia, Russian budget surplus, Bank of Russia base deposit rate, Russian budget deficit, average salary in Russia by region, rating of Russia from Fitch Ratings, rating of Russia from Standard Poors, credit rating of Russia from Moody's, calculation of the key rate in the Russian Federation and the impact on the lives of Russians, average pension in Russia, retirement age in Russia after 2021, Moscow is the capital of Russia, commissions and bank transfer procedure in Russia;
- Currency of Russia - money of the Russian Federation, gold standard in Russia, Russian ruble, Russia (RSFSR) at the Genoa Conference, gold reserves of Russia, banknotes (bills) of the Russian ruble, official currency of the Russian Federation and its exchange rate, example of devaluation of the Russian currency, is the Russian ruble a reserve currency?, currencies of European countries, small change coins of the Russian Federation, is the Russian ruble a freely convertible currency?
- Financial regulators of the Russian Federation - the Bank of Russia and self-regulatory organizations - RAUFR, KROUFR, FSFM, NAFD (TsRFIN), Regulations on the Central Bank of Russia and its functions;
- Exchanges of Russia: NTB, MOEX, St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, FORTS, JSC National Commodity Exchange;
- Stock market of Russia , “blue chips” of the Russian Federation and its stock indices: MOEXBC, IMOEX, RTS, Regulation of securities in the Russian Federation, Legislative regulation of issues in the Russian Federation;
- Brokers in Russia : Alfa Forex, Finam-Forex, VTB Forex, PSB-Forex;
- Online ruble exchange rate charts and quotes: PLN RUB, RUB TJS, USD RUB, EUR RUB, RUB XDR - SDR, SAR RUB, RUB LBP, RUB NAD, RUB EGP, RUB FJD, RUB SBD, PHP RUB, RUB NPR, MYR RUB , IDR RUB, RUB VND, RUB PKR, AED RUB, RUB CLP, ZAR RUB, RUB MAD, ARS RUB;
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