EURO RATE FORECAST FOR MONTH AND 2021, 2022-2025

Euro to ruble exchange rate forecast for the week and month

Over the previous week, the value of the euro in Russian rubles decreased by 0.05 ₽ (five kopecks). This week the euro exchange rate is expected to fall by ninety-three kopecks. After 7 days, the euro to ruble quote will be 89.02 ₽ (eighty-nine rubles two kopecks).

Detailed expected changes in the euro exchange rate by day of the week:

• Thursday: Euro selling rate will be 89.3 ₽
• Friday: Euro selling rate will be 89.33 ₽
• Saturday: Euro selling rate will be 89.25 ₽
• Sunday: Euro selling rate will be 89.13 ₽
• Monday: Euro selling rate will be 89.09 ₽
• Tuesday: Euro selling rate will be 89.1 ₽
• Wednesday: Euro selling rate will be 89.02 ₽

According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, a decrease in the value of the euro against the ruble is predicted over the course of the month. In the first half of March, the exchange rate will be eighty-nine rubles 89.00 rubles 87.00 kopecks. By the end of the month, the euro exchange price will fall by 0.11 rubles and amount to 89.84 rubles (eighty-nine rubles eighty-four kopecks).

Euro

The current exchange rate of the single European currency to the ruble as of May 26, 2021 is 89.9392 rubles.

Forecast for tomorrow week and next month

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Forecast for the exchange rate of the single European currency for 2021 and 2022

Forecast for the exchange rate of the single European currency for 2023 and 2024

The cost of the euro in one week on Wednesday June 2 will be 90.07 rubles. Maximum value 90.55 rub. will be on Thursday, May 27th. Minimum value 89.70 rub. will be on Friday May 28th.

The cost of the euro in two weeks on Wednesday June 9 will be 91.00 rubles. Maximum value 91.31 rub. will be on Tuesday June 8th. Minimum value 89.70 rub. will be on Friday May 28th.

The cost of the euro in three weeks on Wednesday June 16 will be 90.37 rubles. Maximum value 91.31 rub. will be on Tuesday June 8th. Minimum value 89.70 rub. will be on Friday May 28th.

The cost of the euro in four weeks on Wednesday June 23 will be 89.67 rubles. Maximum value 91.31 rub. will be on Tuesday June 8th. Minimum value 89.67 rub. will be on Wednesday June 23rd.

Average exchange rate of the euro/ruble pair for six months

May 2021

The cost of the euro at the end of May will be 89.8063 rubles. The exchange rate will change to -2.76 rubles. from the current one.

June 2021

The weighted average exchange rate in June was 87.36 rubles. Maximum value 88.59 rub. The minimum value at the auction is 86.13 rubles. The exchange rate change will be +0.18 rubles.

July 2021

The weighted average exchange rate in July was 87.46 rubles. Maximum value 88.69 rub. The minimum value at the auction is 86.23 rubles. The exchange rate change will be +0.1 rub.

August 2021

The weighted average rate in August is 89.98 rubles. Maximum value 91.21 rub. The minimum value at the auction is 88.75 rubles. The exchange rate change will be +2.52 rubles.

September 2021

The weighted average rate in September is 89.73 rubles. Maximum value 90.96 rub. The minimum value at the auction is 88.49 rubles. The exchange rate change will be -0.26 rubles.

October 2021

The weighted average rate in October is 87.31 rubles. Maximum value 88.54 rub. The minimum value at the auction is 86.08 rubles. The exchange rate change will be -2.41 rubles.

Average annual value of euro

The average annual exchange rate for 2021 will be 87.9 rubles. The average annual exchange rate for 2022 will be 87.89 rubles. The average annual exchange rate for 2023 will be 88.2 rubles. The average annual exchange rate for 2024 will be 87.89 rubles.

Euro to ruble exchange rate forecast for the year

According to financial experts and analysts, the euro is expected to strengthen against the ruble over the coming year.

Estimated changes in the EUR to RUB exchange rate by month:

• May: Selling rate will be 94.99 ₽
• June: The selling rate will be 96.17 ₽
• July: Selling rate will be 97.23 ₽
• August: Selling rate will be 96.57 ₽
• September: The selling rate will be 100.51 ₽
• October: Selling rate will be 100 ₽
• November: The selling rate will be 100.8 ₽
• December: The selling rate will be 102.51 ₽
• January: Selling rate will be 105.03 ₽
• February: The selling rate will be 105.88 ₽
• March: The selling rate will be 106.64 ₽
• April: The selling rate will be 107.94 ₽

The influence of external and internal factors on the euro

First of all, changes in the value of the euro are affected by changes in the Central Bank interest rate. A sharp increase will directly affect the European currency index. She will grow up too.

The introduction or termination of economic stimulus measures also affects the dynamics of the euro. If economic sanctions against Russia are eased, the ruble strengthens and the euro falls.

The rise of the European economy weakens the ruble, but strengthens the euro. The EU currency is also strengthening with a decrease in unemployment, an increase in business activity, and growth in GDP and industrial production.

Statements by the management of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation or the European Central Bank also affect the relationship between the ruble and the euro. Negative attacks on another country significantly increase the value of the domestic currency.

Results

Analysts and experts predict what will happen to the euro in 2021. Whatever forecasts are made, it is important to understand that the euro is below 80 rubles. will not fall, but at the same time it is unlikely to rise to 150 rubles. A gradual decline and increase in the euro exchange rate is predicted. This will allow you to make adjustments to your business and plans.

Other amounts

The table of ready-made conversions of euros to dollars contains frequently used amounts of money for transferring between the €$ pair.

The ECB will not change interest rates in 2021

With economic growth slowing in the euro area, we can expect the European Central Bank to decide to postpone plans to raise interest rates. However, the most important obstacle limiting the likelihood of tightening monetary policy in the eurocurrency bloc remains the lack of any changes in the dynamics of core inflation in the euro area.

Although the consumer price index itself is close to the ECB’s inflation target. Core inflation was just 1% year on year. This important indicator, which does not take into account changes in food and energy prices, has been maintained for about 5 years at 1% per year and has so far not shown a significant upward trend towards the ECB's inflation target.

It will clearly take some time before improving labor market conditions lead to an acceleration in core inflation. The prospect of this indicator approaching the inflation target is assessed as rather remote.

Inflation in the euro area (2013 - 2018)

It should be emphasized here that de facto, the only goal of the European Central Bank is to maintain price growth at a level close to the target inflation rate. So decision makers probably won't even begin to consider raising interest rates unless they first see some evidence of faster price increases. There is now a growing likelihood that the first rate hike since 2011 will have to wait until 2021, assuming core inflation is still below the central bank's inflation target. At the moment, the most realistic scenario involves the ECB starting discussions on higher interest rates at the end of 2021, while a decision by bank members may not come until 2021.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD from May 26, 2021

FOREX ANALYSIS: TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL

Forex analysis is based on monitoring all indicators that affect changes in exchange rates. First of all, these are macroeconomic indicators. These include the country's GDP, inflation, interest rates, etc. Typically, these data are presented in countries' macroeconomic reports. After their release, the exchange rate may change dramatically. The frequency of providing this information can be found in the economic calendar.

Forex technical analysis uses information about changes in exchange rates over different time periods. Based on past or actual data on changes in exchange rates, predictions are made about the value of exchange rates in the future. In this analysis of the foreign exchange market, various mathematical forecasting methods are used to help traders quickly draw conclusions about the situation occurring in the market and quickly make a decision to buy or sell currency.

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EU economic growth was weakest in 4 years

In 2021, economic indicators characterizing the situation in the eurocurrency bloc were disappointing. In the third quarter of 2018, GDP growth in annual terms was only 1.6% - in the corresponding quarter of last year there was an increase of 2.8%. In the context of euro area expansion, the two most troubling issues were low quarter-on-quarter growth and Germany's limited economic expansion.

A decline in year-on-year growth may seem quite negative, but it is worth remembering that the period to which this value is compared (Q3 2021) saw very high levels of economic growth. In general, the base effect associated with the method of calculating the indicators “disturbed” the higher annual growth of the eurozone in 2021, and in turn favored the said increase in 2017. Therefore, to better assess the situation in the EU, one should also pay attention to dynamic estimates on a quarterly basis. Quarterly economic growth in the eurozone countries in the third quarter of this year was half that of the previous quarter. It was also the lowest reading in four years.

GDP growth in eurozone countries (2011-2018)

When analyzing changes in the situation in the euro area, special attention should be paid to countries whose economies are the largest and therefore most important for the overall bloc, namely Germany, France, Italy and Spain. In the third quarter of 2021, the German economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, driven, among other things, by weaker exports, which may be partly due to uncertainties surrounding global trade. Italy's economic performance was also less than enthusiastic, with the country seeing its economy contract for the first time since 2014, down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. In the foreground is alarming information from Germany, a country with which all other countries in the currency bloc are significantly linked.

However, the slowdown in economic growth in the euro area is not only due to concerns about international trade relations. The PMI, which is considered a fairly good indicator, and the current indicator of the economic situation in the euro area have been moving down since the beginning of this year. Both indicators regarding the situation in the services and industrial sectors fell, which suggests that economic problems in the currency bloc are largely caused by internal restrictions.

PMI business activity indicators in the euro area (2016 - 2018)

The forecast for GDP growth in the eurozone in 2021 was slightly reduced already during the ECB meeting in September - then decision makers pointed to a smaller contribution from external demand.

At its December meeting, the bank made another change to its forecasts and the Board of Governors now expects the currency bloc to expand by 1.9% this year, before growing at just 1.7% a year next year.